I’ve seen many comments and posts regarding the API fiasco on Reddit, with the claim that there will be a huge influx of users when that happens. I’m all for it, but I find it hard to believe that the average or even above average user will make the effort to switch.
I expect the biggest wave has already passed. People who cared about Reddit’s behavior saw the writing on the wall three weeks ago and have had time to switch. Lemmy’s growth will continue at a slower rate as late adopters make the switch over the next few months. The modest barriers to entry will deter a huge number of casual users, who will either stay on Reddit (most likely IMO) or find other things to do with their time.