My understanding is that the “Israel warned them to leave” is misleading. Isreal has been “warning” EVERYONE to leave and repeatedly threatening hospitals because… it would be really bad PR if they blew up (another) hospital.
As for not providing evidence for the entire world to dissect and analyze: Probably because any government with the capability has MUCH better surveillance on Gaza right now than what the OSINT and news media have access to. And you generally don’t provide that to twitter where people are posting footage from years ago and calling it new.
Same with additional recordings and so forth.
We’ll never truly know. But considering that SOME governments actually have been willing to speak out against the war crimes (so, again, not the US) and they aren’t hopping up and calling out the bullshit AND the majority of news outlets have migrated away from the “Israel did this” narrative and are now acknowledging they jumped the gun? Signs point to this not being IDF
As for the London University claims: I haven’t read their reports in full, largely because I wouldn’t understand it. But going by the linked image (which I have seen elsewhere): They basically are building this claim on the claimed direction being on the outer edge of the projection from their models? Its like saying “We project it was probably between 30 and 32 C, but it might also have been 28 to 34 C. Their measurement was 33 C so they are wrong”
I think they were also one of the first outlets to claim the audio was doctored? Which… lines up. University students barely know what they are doing and university professors are generally eager to be “the big dog” for funding and fame purposes. So “This is slightly weird” becomes “We have found discrepancies”
Which gets to the point that not all OSINT is made equally.
My understanding is that the “Israel warned them to leave” is misleading. Isreal has been “warning” EVERYONE to leave and repeatedly threatening hospitals because… it would be really bad PR if they blew up (another) hospital.
EDIT: disregard the above i misread what you said. Yeah israel is warning everywhere to leave and then bombing everywhere. Regardless, they already hit this hospital, so its reasonable to assume they would hit it again.
They basically are building this claim on the claimed direction being on the outer edge of the projection from their models?
No they’re saying the projectile came from approximately the opposite direction as Israel claimed. The red on the compass is the incoming direction.
Which gets to the point that not all OSINT is made equally.
I would trust this org though, they’ve presented findings in front of the UN, they’ve received funding from the EU, they seem very legit.
Are they claiming the opposite direction? The graphic is REALLY confusing with the blue line having directionality but the red cone not.
And my point is to not distrust them. There is no reason not to. My point is more to understand where they are coming from. They likely have far fewer government contacts than a lot of media outlets (which is good when you want an impartial org) so can only base things off of “public” information rather than “So Fred at the CIA totally didn’t tell me that they have footage saying it was aliens”. And, universities tend to have a lot of “We just report the facts” without understanding that people don’t know how to interpret the facts.
And the other aspect is just that… True Crime and the ninety bajillion NCIS spinoffs have really warped people’s minds. The reality is that there are going to be a LOT of discrepancies in any investigation. For all we knowm the shell/small rocket impacted next to a small dumpster that was vaporized in the explosion but still heavily impacted the directionality of the crater. Or the rocket tumbled or spiraled on its way down. Or the concrete was mixed poorly. Or even just the shell was defective. There are plenty of reasons why the crater might have an ambiguous directionality and so forth.
I am not saying to trust the IDF. Like, seriously, they have been engaging in crimes against humanity for decades and much like with Hamas and the baby decapitations and rape, it is less “did they blow up a hospital” and more 'did they blow up THIS hospital"?. But most of this is based on knee jerk reactions and taking a terrorist organization that STILL is holding people hostage at face value. Keeping in mind that said initial reports from Hams DRASTICALLY exaggerated the damage and loss of life.
And if this were really a smoking gun? Basically the entire OSINT community, more than a few government agencies, and every news outlet on the planet would be banging pot lids rather than talking about the dangers of improperly presenting preliminary evidence in an ongoing situation. The US will never acknowledge that Israel are engaging in genocide (and have been for decades). But CNN and the like will gladly do so if the story is juicy enough.
Are they claiming the opposite direction? The graphic is REALLY confusing with the blue line having directionality but the red cone not.
Yeah they are, I agree it isn’t the clearest. But that’s what the messages later in the thread say.
I know that there are a lot of discrepancies, but I really don’t trust governments, so I don’t think its reasonable to trust them unless they provide genuine evidence, not just “bro trust me”. We’ll have to wait for Israel and Hamas/PIJ/etc. to let independent investigators go inspect the hospital, and yeah idk if that’s ever gonna happen. Hamas lied about the death count and the missile fragment, Israel lied (tweeted that they did it then deleted it, posted fake videos, maybe faked phone call). But the evidence available to the public points towards Israel, albeit circumstantially, so I think it’s reasonable to say I think Israel probably did it.
Not that any of this matters at the end of the day, more and more palestinian kids are being vaporized by JDAMs every day and nothing we can do changes that.
My understanding is that the “Israel warned them to leave” is misleading. Isreal has been “warning” EVERYONE to leave and repeatedly threatening hospitals because… it would be really bad PR if they blew up (another) hospital.
As for not providing evidence for the entire world to dissect and analyze: Probably because any government with the capability has MUCH better surveillance on Gaza right now than what the OSINT and news media have access to. And you generally don’t provide that to twitter where people are posting footage from years ago and calling it new.
Same with additional recordings and so forth.
We’ll never truly know. But considering that SOME governments actually have been willing to speak out against the war crimes (so, again, not the US) and they aren’t hopping up and calling out the bullshit AND the majority of news outlets have migrated away from the “Israel did this” narrative and are now acknowledging they jumped the gun? Signs point to this not being IDF
As for the London University claims: I haven’t read their reports in full, largely because I wouldn’t understand it. But going by the linked image (which I have seen elsewhere): They basically are building this claim on the claimed direction being on the outer edge of the projection from their models? Its like saying “We project it was probably between 30 and 32 C, but it might also have been 28 to 34 C. Their measurement was 33 C so they are wrong”
I think they were also one of the first outlets to claim the audio was doctored? Which… lines up. University students barely know what they are doing and university professors are generally eager to be “the big dog” for funding and fame purposes. So “This is slightly weird” becomes “We have found discrepancies”
Which gets to the point that not all OSINT is made equally.
WHO says they’ve been ordering every hospital in north gaza to evacuate, and they word it like they’re specifically sending this message to the hospitals. https://www.who.int/news/item/14-10-2023-evacuation-orders-by-israel-to-hospitals-in-northern-gaza-are-a-death-sentence-for-the-sick-and-injured
EDIT: disregard the above i misread what you said. Yeah israel is warning everywhere to leave and then bombing everywhere. Regardless, they already hit this hospital, so its reasonable to assume they would hit it again.
No they’re saying the projectile came from approximately the opposite direction as Israel claimed. The red on the compass is the incoming direction.
I would trust this org though, they’ve presented findings in front of the UN, they’ve received funding from the EU, they seem very legit.
Are they claiming the opposite direction? The graphic is REALLY confusing with the blue line having directionality but the red cone not.
And my point is to not distrust them. There is no reason not to. My point is more to understand where they are coming from. They likely have far fewer government contacts than a lot of media outlets (which is good when you want an impartial org) so can only base things off of “public” information rather than “So Fred at the CIA totally didn’t tell me that they have footage saying it was aliens”. And, universities tend to have a lot of “We just report the facts” without understanding that people don’t know how to interpret the facts.
And the other aspect is just that… True Crime and the ninety bajillion NCIS spinoffs have really warped people’s minds. The reality is that there are going to be a LOT of discrepancies in any investigation. For all we knowm the shell/small rocket impacted next to a small dumpster that was vaporized in the explosion but still heavily impacted the directionality of the crater. Or the rocket tumbled or spiraled on its way down. Or the concrete was mixed poorly. Or even just the shell was defective. There are plenty of reasons why the crater might have an ambiguous directionality and so forth.
I am not saying to trust the IDF. Like, seriously, they have been engaging in crimes against humanity for decades and much like with Hamas and the baby decapitations and rape, it is less “did they blow up a hospital” and more 'did they blow up THIS hospital"?. But most of this is based on knee jerk reactions and taking a terrorist organization that STILL is holding people hostage at face value. Keeping in mind that said initial reports from Hams DRASTICALLY exaggerated the damage and loss of life.
And if this were really a smoking gun? Basically the entire OSINT community, more than a few government agencies, and every news outlet on the planet would be banging pot lids rather than talking about the dangers of improperly presenting preliminary evidence in an ongoing situation. The US will never acknowledge that Israel are engaging in genocide (and have been for decades). But CNN and the like will gladly do so if the story is juicy enough.
Yeah they are, I agree it isn’t the clearest. But that’s what the messages later in the thread say.
I know that there are a lot of discrepancies, but I really don’t trust governments, so I don’t think its reasonable to trust them unless they provide genuine evidence, not just “bro trust me”. We’ll have to wait for Israel and Hamas/PIJ/etc. to let independent investigators go inspect the hospital, and yeah idk if that’s ever gonna happen. Hamas lied about the death count and the missile fragment, Israel lied (tweeted that they did it then deleted it, posted fake videos, maybe faked phone call). But the evidence available to the public points towards Israel, albeit circumstantially, so I think it’s reasonable to say I think Israel probably did it.
Not that any of this matters at the end of the day, more and more palestinian kids are being vaporized by JDAMs every day and nothing we can do changes that.