Let’s build a tower of nonsense on top of numbers we vibe with and pulled out of our ass

  • swlabr@awful.systems
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    1 year ago

    There are some follow up tweets.

    To the commenters shocked that Zvi’s probability numbers don’t come from an “objective calculation”:

    Not shocked. At this point I am numb to it though.

    1. Approximating numerical probabilities is required if you want to make coherent decisions.

    Average bayesist when they need to pee:

    “Hmm, I suspect I need to pee. The decision I now must make is whether or not I should use my toilet or my sink.”

    half an hour of examining priors, searching LW for urination sequences and setting up a prediction market later

    “Hmm, it appears I have peed my pants.”

    1. Probability is subjective (a property of our belief-state) for us Bayesians.

    Oh my god, he admit it!

    • sue_me_please@awful.systemsOP
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      1 year ago

      Approximating numerical probabilities is required if you want to make coherent decisions.

      I hate everything about this sentence within its context.