A crucial system of ocean currents is heading for a collapse that 'would affect every person on the planet' | CNN
www.cnn.com
A vital system of ocean currents in the Atlantic could collapse within a few decades – an event that would be catastrophic for global weather and “affect every person on the planet.”
  • Dannebot@leddit.danmark.partyOPMBdansk
    1·
    2 years ago

    bejangravity at 2023-07-25 19:33:59+00:00 ID: jtfc4ue

    Fra artiklen i Nature:" In recent years weakening in circulation has been reported, but assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that a full collapse is unlikely within the 21st century. Tipping to an undesired state in the climate is, however, a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations."

    Som så ofte så er CNN’s overskrift en stor overdrivelse, men stadig foruroligende.

    • Dannebot@leddit.danmark.partyOPMBdansk
      1·
      2 years ago

      oblivoos at 2023-07-25 23:04:15+00:00 ID: jtg7pbe

      stort set samtlige artikler der refererer en undersøgelse fra nyhedskilder som cnn (eller fox eller EB for den sags skyld) er til at lukke op og skide i

    • Dannebot@leddit.danmark.partyOPMBdansk
      1·
      2 years ago

      dentastic at 2023-07-26 05:41:45+00:00 ID: jthk38m

      Har du et link til selve artiklen? Jeg gad godt læse lidt mere af den

    • Dannebot@leddit.danmark.partyOPMBdansk
      1·
      2 years ago

      johnjohn1913 at 2023-07-26 09:00:32+00:00 ID: jthzvf4

      Det er præcis årsagen til, at jeg tager samtlige af sådanne artikler med et gran salt, og det er desværre med til at undergrave hele klimaudfordringen. Jeg kan godt forstå at der er folk som stiller sig på hælene, når der konstant bliver råbt “ulven kommer”. “Ulven” kommer nok, men lad os holde de rette proportioner. Dommedagsagtige artikler er ren clickbait og får folk til at fare i flint (mange af kommentarerne i denne tråd er et fint eksempel på dette).

      • Dannebot@leddit.danmark.partyOPMBdansk
        1·
        2 years ago

        Iskaru at 2023-07-26 12:40:51+00:00 ID: jtik97w

        Du bør også tage tilfældige posts på reddit med et gran salt… Citatet bejangravity giver er fra abstraktet, som henviser til tidligere fund. Deres egen udregninger finder altså noget nyt, nemlig at tipping point ligger et sted mellem ca ~2045 og ~2070. Så det er altså korrekt nok rapporteret af CNN.

        https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w

        "We predict with high confidence the tipping to happen as soon as

        mid-century (2025–2095 is a 95% confidence range). These results are

        under the assumption that the model is approximately correct, and we, of

        course, cannot rule out that other mechanisms are at play, and thus,

        the uncertainty is larger. However, we have reduced the analysis to have

        as few and sound assumptions as possible, and given the importance of

        the AMOC for the climate system, we ought not to ignore such clear

        indicators of an imminent collapse."

        • Dannebot@leddit.danmark.partyOPMBdansk
          1·
          2 years ago

          Mattidh1 at 2023-07-26 13:46:42+00:00 ID: jtisv97

          Husk at tage 95% confidence med et gran salt. Beregningen er sat ud fra 1000 iterations, og når man ser på reelt små forskelle så er det satme ikke meget.

          Det skal dog ikke fjerne fra det at jeg er enig med selve artiklen.

    • Dannebot@leddit.danmark.partyOPMBdansk
      1·
      2 years ago

      Iskaru at 2023-07-26 12:36:27+00:00 ID: jtijq2q

      Tror du læser forkert, det citat henviser til tidligere vurderinger - deres egen vurdering er: “Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.”

      Her er et citat fra diskussionen: “We predict with high confidence the tipping to happen as soon as mid-century (2025–2095 is a 95% confidence range). These results are under the assumption that the model is approximately correct, and we, of course, cannot rule out that other mechanisms are at play, and thus, the uncertainty is larger. However, we have reduced the analysis to have as few and sound assumptions as possible, and given the importance of the AMOC for the climate system, we ought not to ignore such clear indicators of an imminent collapse.”

      Så det er altså rimelig korrekt rapporteret af CNN.