The Republican presidential candidate ridiculously claimed that Biden is "trying to hold" Bibi back, as the Israeli prime minister continued to ruthlessly bomb Lebanon and Gaza.

“He’s doing a good job,” Trump saidabout the Israeli leader. “Biden is trying to hold him back, just so you understand, Biden is more superior to the VP. He’s trying to hold him back, and he probably should be doing the opposite, actually. I’m glad that Netanyahu decided to do what he had to do, but it’s moving along pretty good.”

  • usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.ml
    9·
    2 months ago

    Polling doesn’t capture turnout changes. This is the kind of thing that’s largest effect, if materialized, would be boosting dem turnout

    • Ghostalmedia@lemmy.worldEnglish
      4·
      2 months ago

      Depends on the poll. State by state polls absolutely sample likely voters (aka, people who plan to turn out). Moreover, they use past polling and election data to inflate or deflate turnout likelihood if a consistent gaps exists between what a cohort historically says and what a cohort historically does.

      • usernamesAreTricky@lemmy.ml
        7·
        2 months ago

        They don’t easily capture changes to turnout between election cycles is my point. They rely on assumptions of what turnout will look like to weight their polling

        The best proxy is voter enthusiasm, but its not perfect

        • Ghostalmedia@lemmy.worldEnglish
          2·
          2 months ago

          Yeah, but most elections these days generally fall within the margins of polls. The historical trend data is generally doing a decent job of predicting future behavior.

          IMHO, the bigger issue is that some races are so tight that they can’t be reliably predicted. The winner is buried within the margin of error.