Four accounts owned by one French national have poured $35 million into the prediction market, and they’re all betting on Donald Trump to win the 2024 election.
I’m not sure what your point is, although maybe I should have been more specific and said that people are, in effect, betting real money.
If you have dollars, you can quickly convert those dollars to bets on Trump or Harris, and then if you win you can quickly convert your winnings back into dollars. It’s like buying a token to get on the subway (back when physical tokens were in use). It was correct to say that a subway ride cost $1.50 despite the fact that the turnstile didn’t actually accept cash.
Okay, then we’re in agreement; it’s only real value is in the conversion back to liquid money. And “betting” is entirely accurate.
I more meant it’s not money because it can’t be spent / consumed easily. It’s a non-productive, illiquid asset in the same sense that collector cars or fine art isn’t money, it’s a hopeful store of value, and you’ll only know what it’s worth when you convert it back to liquid money.
Or maybe a better comparison would be that Beanie Babies or NFTs weren’t money, they were a non-productive, illiquid asset based on hope and the greater fool theory.
I’ve yet to hear an argument about the value of crypto that doesn’t boil down to either hope that someone else will keep buying to drive up the price, or that it’s being used to reduce friction in traditional money-transfers applications, usually international transfers where fiat-to-fiat has very high fees, or money laundering and terrorist financing LOL
Interestingly, reducing friction in international money transfers is, I think, a laudable goal. I’m still not sure that makes the crypto count as an asset instead of just a technological function. The SWIFT system isn’t an asset, for example, it’s just a tool.
I don’t think we actually disagree. I found out about Bitcoin back when buying a pizza with 10 coins was remarkable, but I thought it was a stupid idea. I still think I was right, but I wish I had not been. I would be very rich…
Edit: I don’t think anyone denies that it’s betting. It’s even called a betting market. But what’s wrong with betting?
LOL, yeah, that’s why I can buy a chocolate bar at the corner store with it.
/s
Remind me, how do you measure or capture the returns of cryptocurrency again? Oh yeah, by converting them to fiat currency.
I’m not sure what your point is, although maybe I should have been more specific and said that people are, in effect, betting real money.
If you have dollars, you can quickly convert those dollars to bets on Trump or Harris, and then if you win you can quickly convert your winnings back into dollars. It’s like buying a token to get on the subway (back when physical tokens were in use). It was correct to say that a subway ride cost $1.50 despite the fact that the turnstile didn’t actually accept cash.
Okay, then we’re in agreement; it’s only real value is in the conversion back to liquid money. And “betting” is entirely accurate.
I more meant it’s not money because it can’t be spent / consumed easily. It’s a non-productive, illiquid asset in the same sense that collector cars or fine art isn’t money, it’s a hopeful store of value, and you’ll only know what it’s worth when you convert it back to liquid money.
Or maybe a better comparison would be that Beanie Babies or NFTs weren’t money, they were a non-productive, illiquid asset based on hope and the greater fool theory.
I’ve yet to hear an argument about the value of crypto that doesn’t boil down to either hope that someone else will keep buying to drive up the price, or that it’s being used to reduce friction in traditional money-transfers applications, usually international transfers where fiat-to-fiat has very high fees, or money laundering and terrorist financing LOL
Interestingly, reducing friction in international money transfers is, I think, a laudable goal. I’m still not sure that makes the crypto count as an asset instead of just a technological function. The SWIFT system isn’t an asset, for example, it’s just a tool.
I don’t think we actually disagree. I found out about Bitcoin back when buying a pizza with 10 coins was remarkable, but I thought it was a stupid idea. I still think I was right, but I wish I had not been. I would be very rich…
Edit: I don’t think anyone denies that it’s betting. It’s even called a betting market. But what’s wrong with betting?