I expect (at least) one party will eventually adopt Rejoin as a distinguishing policy, and maybe sooner rather later.
But the appetite for Rejoin will probably depend on the shape of the UK economy and the political direction of the EU in 10+ years. If the Starmer project really has been delivering tangible growth by then, people may feel Brexit has (inadvertently) “worked” in the end. If the EU achieves greater and greater integration in the UK’s absence it may seem less palatable to enough voters.
Both of those are also going to be influenced by external factors like the direction of a possible Trump second term, the outcome of the war in Ukraine etc.
I would hypothesise now that the UK has left, France’s proposals for a closer integrated EU standing army and two-speed EU are much more likely to go ahead.
Because of that I see a future in 20 years for something like a three-speed EU:
Full integration.
Free movement of goods and people.
Mutual recognition of qualifications and frictionless framework for EU standard goods back and forth across the boarder. With a seat but no voting rights for the discussion of said standards.
I can see clear calls in 15 years. But likely another 10-20 before those calls agree on any approach to join.
There will be a huge we should get what we had push making any actual agreement impossible.
I expect (at least) one party will eventually adopt Rejoin as a distinguishing policy, and maybe sooner rather later.
But the appetite for Rejoin will probably depend on the shape of the UK economy and the political direction of the EU in 10+ years. If the Starmer project really has been delivering tangible growth by then, people may feel Brexit has (inadvertently) “worked” in the end. If the EU achieves greater and greater integration in the UK’s absence it may seem less palatable to enough voters.
Both of those are also going to be influenced by external factors like the direction of a possible Trump second term, the outcome of the war in Ukraine etc.
I would hypothesise now that the UK has left, France’s proposals for a closer integrated EU standing army and two-speed EU are much more likely to go ahead.
Because of that I see a future in 20 years for something like a three-speed EU: