Due to high gerrymandering and messed up voting system it’s expected that a result like this would still give Orbán a small majority in the parliament.
But Orbán won all elections since 2006 (in 2006 he lost parliamentary elections in March but won local elections in September, than won everything in 2010, than he changed the voting rules). Current system overwhelmingly punishes coalitions and small parties, and favors big parties.
Medián, the pollster behind this poll is usually one of the most accurate. Wiki page about recent polls, and the rise of Tisza Party: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election
I don’t know if replacing Orban with someone that supported him until early this year is going to change much. Remember that even Lukashenko successfully pretended to be an anti-corruption champion while in the opposition before making Belarus is personal fief.
I’m also not a big fan of him, but literally anyone would be better than orbán. We have to give a chance to anyone, it can’t be much more worse.
And we don’t know what the exact voting rules will be, they can figure out something, they always changed it some month prior each election. Orbán won’t give away the throne easily.