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cross-posted from: https://sh.itjust.works/post/30140601
Oleksandr deserted from the front line in eastern Ukraine after watching his fellow servicemen being pulverised by Russian bombardments for six months. Then, those remaining were ordered to counterattack.
It was the final straw for Oleksandr, 45, who had been holding the line in the embattled Lugansk region in the early months of the war. Even his commanding officer was reluctant to send his men back toward what looked like certain death. So when Oleksandr saw an opening to save his life, he did.
“We wanted to live. We had no combat experience. We were just ordinary working people from villages,” the soft-spoken serviceman, who declined to give his last name, told AFP.
His decision is just one of many cases plaguing the Ukrainian military, which has already suffered at least 43,000 losses in nearly three years of fighting, President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed this month. The government is also struggling to recruit new troops. Together, these manpower problems present a critical hurdle for Ukraine, which is losing territory to Russia at the fastest rate since the early days of the February 2022 invasion.
The issue was put under the spotlight in September when 24-year-old serviceman Sergiy Gnezdilov announced in a scathing social media post that he was leaving his unit in protest over indefinite service. “From today, I am going AWOL with five years of impeccable soldiering behind me, until clear terms of service are established or until my 25th birthday,” he wrote.
Figures published by the Ukrainian general prosecutor’s office show that more than 90,000 cases have been opened into instances of soldiers going absent without leave or deserting since Russia invaded in 2022, with a sharp increase over the past year.
Oleksandr said that after leaving the frontline, he remembered little from the year he spent at home in the Lviv region owing to concussions he suffered while deployed. He recounted “mostly drinking” to process the horrors he witnessed but his guilt was mounting at the same time. He ultimately decided to return after seeing young Ukrainians enlist or wounded troops return to battle – despite pleas from his family.
His brother was beaten during the historic Maidan protests in 2013 that toppled Ukraine’s pro-Kremlin leader, and later died. His sister was desperate. “They’re going to kill you. I would rather bring you food to prison than flowers to your grave,” he recounted his sister telling him during a visit from Poland.
It was guilt, too, that motivated Buch, who identified himself by a military nickname, to return to battle. The 29-year-old deserted after being wounded in fierce fighting in southern Ukraine in late 2022 during the liberation of Kherson city. “Just staying under constant shelling gradually damages your mental state. You go crazy step by step. You are all the time under stress, huge stress,” he said of his initial decision to abscond.
In an effort to address manpower shortages, Ukrainian lawmakers in August approved an amnesty for first-time offenders who voluntarily returned to their units.
Both the 47th and 53rd brigades in December announced they would welcome back servicemen who had left the front without permission, saying: “We all make mistakes.” Prosecutors said in early December that 8,000 servicemen that went absent without leave or deserted had returned in November alone.
Still, Siver, commander of the 1st Separate Assault Battalion, known as Da Vinci, who also identified himself by his military nickname, said the number of Ukrainian troops fleeing the fighting without permission was growing. That is partly because many of the most motivated fighters have already been killed or wounded.
“Not many people are made for war,” said Siver, describing how his perceptions of bravery had been reshaped by seeing those who stood their ground, and those who fled. “There are more and more people who are forced to go,” he told AFP, referring to a large-scale and divisive army mobilisation campaign.
But other servicemen interviewed by AFP suggested that systemic changes in military culture – and leadership – could help deter desertions.
Buch said his military and medical training as well as the attitudes of his superiors had improved compared to his first deployment, when some officers “didn’t treat us like people”. Siver suggested that better psychological support could help troops prepare for the hardships and stress of battle.
“Some people think it’s going to be like in a movie. Everything will be great, I’ll shoot, I’ll run,” he said. “But it’s different. You sit in a trench for weeks. Some of them are knee-deep in mud, cold and hungry.” He said there was no easy solution to discouraging desertion, and predicted the trend would worsen. “How do you reduce the numbers? I don’t even know how. We just have to end the war,” he said.
Note that your quote is in reference to the Iranian 1953 coup.
I explained it. US support of both civil organizations that promote pro-western policies and far-right organizations. The money trail is there. NED used to share their recipients on their website up until a couple years ago, but you can still find it on the internet wayback archive. Whatever was sent openly through NED you can count on another amount of money being sent covertly to uglier groups
Here’s the thing- I’m not trying to take away agency from Ukrainians. The US did not create Euromaidan. They promoted it and they tried to support the material conditions that allowed Euromaidan to happen. But the outrage was real. The protests were real. It’s not so much the US created it as the US took advantage of it. Never let a good crisis go to waste.
Small powers get subjugated by big powers. Are you claiming somehow Ukrainians are unique in this? That they are racially or culturally superior to every other small country that the US supported and instigated coups in? Are you taking away the agency of Guatemalans, Cubans, Iranians, etc? Why is Ukraine special?
That’s great, I 100% agree. But I’m not sure if you’re ever been in a liberal democracy. It’s not the people that actually get to decide what happens. It’s the powerful private interest groups that happen to control the levers to power.
Again, the same argument could be made for every single other US-supported coup. Do you deny these have ever happened? Have you read about any of them?
Two things here. a) I have a couple Ukrainian friends and their views are more nuanced than yours. b) just because somebody comes from a country that does not make their opinion magically correct. Exhibit A talk to some Trump voters and determine whether or not they have an accurate representation of reality. Exhibit B look back at the invasion of Iraq. Do you believe the average American had an accurate understanding of what was happening at the time? War = massive amounts of propaganda being pumped into our media systems. It obfuscates the truth and most people do not care so they just take the official narrative and run with it. As it turns out, however, official narrative is the last thing you should trust in a war
Far-right organisations and parties have less influence in Ukraine right now than in pretty much any other European country. Money trail or not, that’s not speaking towards the US being able to influence things.
“Pro-western”, whatever that means, has been popular in Ukraine for quite some time. Ukrainians only have to look over the border to Poland (you’re aware that they’re bordering each other and the languages are almost mutually intelligible? Just making sure) how beneficial being part of the EU is. Tons and tons of Ukrainians, year after year, went into the EU as seasonal workers. They’re no strangers to us, we’re no strangers to them. I shared a lecture hall with Ukrainians, that was still back in Kutshma times and boy what progress Ukraine made in the meantime. What wasn’t universally popular was a hard break with Russia, many people had faith in Russia, too, being able to work towards shaking off the shackles of kleptocracy, of autocracy. That changed with Crimea and by now it has completely shifted.
While I’m at it: Are you claiming that these elections were not fraudulent. That fraud was the cause for the Orange revolution.
…the sum of that money is peanuts, btw. Every single Ukrainian oligarch can, and indeed has, outspent the NED. Fun thing about Ukrainian oligarchs is that plenty of them don’t like to be under Moscow’s thumb, either, they don’t want to pay dues to Russia’s mob.
You read too many geopolitical “realists”, as they call themselves. Small powers band up and beat large powers. Small powers fight wars of independence that ruin big powers.
Cuba, Vietnam. Did the US achieve what it wanted, there. What about Afghanistan. Afghanistan broke both the USSR and the US. Tell me more about how small powers get dominated.
I have also more nuanced views than I’m expressing here. I don’t get to express them because you’re being a conspiracy theorist, before we can get to nuance we’ll first have to deal with the elephant in the room.
Somehow, Europeans had a much clearer picture. Maybe you should listen to us more. Americans are notoriously self-absorbed, the upper echelons might be less uninformed but y’all are still just as jingoistic. Case in point: Your assertion, against all evidence, about domination. Left, right, educated, dropout, doesn’t matter, it’s very hard to find yanks who don’t buy into that shit. It’s the water you swim in and I’m currently trying to get you to see it.
Go back to your school days. How often have you heard that America is the biggest and greatest and most powerful? How prevalent is that kind of thinking in the minds of your compatriots? Even if you disagree with how that power is used: Do you still believe that it, indeed, exists? That is what I’m talking about. You may question one thing, but you’re not questioning, even examining, the deeper layer of y’alls national delusion.
Show me, please, another European country where the far-right was able to fund hundreds of protests which they purposely escalated to violence (following traditional right-wing patterns, ie Mein Kampf) and those protests were key in toppling the government.
They played kingmaker. In return they get incorporated and legitimized. Ie Azov which started as a neonazi militia becomes an official part of the government. Now they’re “tolerant and inclusive” but if you look at the leadership, it turns out they’re the same guys who joined when it was neonazis.
“pro-western” means messages that bring Ukraine closer to the Western block and away from the Russian block. US money has been openly flowing since independence in 1991, with covert money almost certainly going back much longer (remember, the US tried a coup in Ukraine after WW2. you can read a history book about it)
i’d imagine it’s like spanish to italian. close and if you have had exposure you’ll be able to pick up more than someone who hasn’t.
invasion of Crimea happened because of Euromaidan. literally a few days after there was a coup that installed a pro-western government. Russia got desperate and decided it was now or never. at the time, less than half of people supported the protests. mostly split on west/east. it was not so universally supported even though history is slowly being rewritten.
right now, ukraine has lost almost a quarter of their population. and that included their most pro-russian citizens (crimea+donbas). so now they are more ideologically homogenous. it may seem like there was a major change but it’s deceptive
i haven’t made a single claim about any election in ukraine being fraudulent or legitimate. in the west we don’t have to fake votes. elections are bought in other ways. you know what’s the greatest correlation for campaign success in the US? $$$
billions of pure liquid cash in the right hands is not peanuts, especially in a poor country like Ukraine. $200M a year is enough to hire thousands of people full time.
it’s history. do you deny this? small powers get subjugated by big ones. big ones have a gravitational orbit and pull in small powers to advance their interests. it’s a tale that goes back to Athens and the Delian League. I’m not really sure what you’re arguing against here. it’s not a controversial take i’m making
ok let’s back track.
whether or not US was successful does not change the fact that the US had a long track record of coup attempts
only Cuba had a US-supported coup attempt. and they succeeded. about a decade later there was a communist revolution, but for that decade American companies owned a majority of the arable land in Cuba.
similar story in Guatemala. Chiquita owned the majority of farmland there. It’s why the CIA overthrew the government. for $$$. The fact that there happened to be a military dictatorship that perpetuated genocide did not matter
similar story in Iran (your Europe was involved in this one too, by the way) except with oil
it’s a cheap way to shut down a conversation. if the US has done something like 20+ times in the last century and it’s actually done that thing in Ukraine before, you cannot pretend like it’s such a wild thing.
Europeans were involved in Iraq too, buddy. Propaganda was just as strong over there. People were just as misinformed. Same thing in Libya. Same thing right now in Israel. When US says “let’s go” the Europeans go
Just an FYI I was born in Latin America. In a country where the CIA toppled a democratically elected government which resulted in a military dictatorship.
I’m not sure if I’m willing to defend here with you basic geopolitics and history. for example Germany and Japan were subjugated by the US after WW2. Small power bends to big one. This is basic stuff. I have a feeling you are young and have not yet had time to read and absorb information yet.
“Another” implies that that was the case in Ukraine. The right wing is not close to big enough to field those numbers. Them being at the protests doesn’t mean that they run it. You could just as well accuse pretty much any other party of paying protesters.
But there’s actually a case: Germany. And it wasn’t protests, but brownshirt militias. Backed by among others US money, e.g. Henry Ford.
If Canada were to invade the US, would you mind the KKK volunteering to die on the front? Would you stop them from dying?
Ukraine did not have a functioning army when Crimea went down, everything had to be rebuilt, meanwhile, a defensive line had to be held. You don’t ask deep questions in those kinds of situations: If someone wants to defend the homeland, you have them defend the homeland.
In case you’re curious btw it’s not precisely Azov but Dylan Burns has an interview with Right Sector soldiers. Right Sector were the ones participating in Euromaidan.
The first accurate assessment I’m hearing from you. Yes, Russia realised that if it did not act militarily, Ukraine would actually escape the empire. Like the Baltics did, like Poland did, like Romania did, like Georgia well it’s still up in the air but shit’s certainly going down over there. Right now.
Figures people don’t like to be ruled by Moscow. Can you blame them? The most compelling argument for a “pro-western” direction is Moscow itself.
Who the fuck cares. Who asked. Who called the US a democracy. We’re talking about Ukraine, you’ll not only have to look beyond the brim of your burger, you have to step out of it.
But on the flipside you get to say it happened, against all evidence?
No. The UK and some other nations who wanted to suck up to the US participated. Germany knew that the Curveball intelligence was BS the moment Rumsfeld fielded it, that intelligence came from Germany. Attached to it a note “use for possible leads only, guy lies through his teeth”.
Last I checked I was, technically, born under British occupation, not American. Also the term we use over here is “liberated”. You’re comparing apples and oranges.
Latin American countries aren’t known to have particularly strong civil societies which can act in unison. Maybe that’s what you’re missing, where this “nothing ever happens if a shady cabal doesn’t orchestrate it and pays people off” attitude comes from.
You ever heard that infamous quote by the founding general secretary of NATO? “keep the Americans in, the Germans down, and the Russians out” ?
NATO was designed to be and still is a tool to subjugate Europe and expand American power. Everything the German politicians wrote in the aftermath of WW2 had to be approved by the Allied powers and the US by far had the strongest gravitational orbit. To this day, Germany is not allowed anything beyond a defensive military.
A country who cannot voluntarily build up a military is a country that is not fully independent.
Ok, so we acknowledge that far-right protests can lead to coups and that money helps finance these. We are getting somewhere. Right-wing tactics are nothing new. The same things they tried in the early 20th century, they are trying again today.
https://voxukraine.org/en/denial-of-the-obvious-far-right-in-maidan-protests-and-their-danger-today
Far-right organizations were by far the most important players in these protests. They organized them, they funded them, they escalated tensions at the protests. This falls in line with far-right tactics, like we spoke about above. Violence begets more violence. Enough violence and the government can topple.
These groups, Svoboda being the largest, had a large access to $$$. This $$$ came from somewhere.
Then we leave quasi-legitimacy of Svoboda and go directly to militancy.
If you look at the data, if you look at the protests, if you look at what happened- the far-right was instrumental in toppling the Ukrainian government. They were organized, ideologically heated, and had lots of resources backing them.
If I were a Ukrainian and I could snap my finger and choose whether to be part of the West or part of Russia’s orbit… I would immediately choose the West.
But look at the costs they paid for this independence war. They’ve lost a fifth of their land, nearly a quarter of their population, nearly a third of their economic output. Cities are ruined, families are scattered, their demographics are destroyed for the next century.
Ukraine will never be a Poland. They are a sacrificial lamb. This is what really fucks me up about the whole thing. We participate in the destruction of Ukraine in the name of democracy, sovereignty, international law, bla bla bla. But in 10 years they will be no better off. They will not get a Marshall Plan
I’m not criticizing the morality of allowing the far-right to fight in a war. I’m using that as an example to show their outsized influence. Have you seen any left-wing militias that got officially incorporated into the Ukrainian military? No, you haven’t. Because the far-right is not only more common in numbers, but in influence.
Albania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Turkey, & the United Kingdom
It’s not “against all evidence” There is a wealth of circumstantial evidence. You can track American money openly flowing into Ukrainian organizations that directly participated in the overthrow of the Kiev government and instituted a pro-US regime.
That new regime on the very first day already started cooperating with the CIA. There’s a nice Reuters or Washington Post article about it I can find if you’re interested.
There’s the diplomatic phone call leaked by Russia, I don’t know if you’ve heard it. Basically two US officials were debating which Ukrainian politician they wanted to win. Turns out, the guy they wanted to win did become PM. There’s more, if you’re willing to read leftist news.
Yeah, because Ukraine is a strong civil society. Where the government was toppled and one was unconstitutionally appointed.
Germany is allowed whatever is allowed by international law. Unlike other countries we actually care about that stuff and no we were never limited to pure defence.
Oh I see you’re a Nazi, they’re talking like that all the time here. “Germany has no constitution”. “We’re actually still in the Reich, the current government is a limited liability company”.
Seriously. Here, you can read up on your kin in thought. In reality, Germany gained full sovereignty with the 2+4 treaty. It took until 1990 because Russia insisted on instituting a dictatorship in the east. You might have noticed that I’m not shy with my anti-Americanism but that one wasn’t their fault.
That’s not even what your source says. Yes, they were the most organised. People welcomed the e.g. riot shields they organised, you also wouldn’t ask about the idology of whoever is handing you something to duck behind while getting shot at by government snipers. Who the fuck needs funding to buy a metro ticket to the square on a day off to get shot at by government snipers. Have you any idea how small those organisations are, and how many people were on the streets back then.
And they would lose even more if they were to stop fighting. And they know that, and that is precisely why they fight. Have a look at the polls. Or I suppose the US is paying Ukrainians off to answer in particular ways?
How much money. Name it. Name the sum. Then laugh at it. Ukraine is poor but not that poor.
Nuland is entitled to her opinions, it’s a free country, even Americans can have opinions in Ukraine. Figures that the people in the Rada are also politicians and came to the same conclusion: Jazenjuk would make a good interim PM. Bog-standard Christian Democrat, kinda boring, honourable, not a red flag for anyone, experienced.
The very reason that two people sharing an opinion, “I think so and so would be a good choice”, is considered smoking gun evidence by the people peddling that narrative should make you think.
No. If anything Yanukovich was unconstitutionally removed from office – as said, the Rada had the votes, it has the power, but they didn’t keep to standard procedure. All the appointments were completely constitutional.
The civil society was strong enough to remove a Russian asset from power, yes, to make him go AWOL. That’s what happens in democracies: If politicians don’t follow the people’s will, they get deposed of. Euromaidan was not a regular impeachment, no, but Yanukovich’ betrayal of his platform wasn’t ordinary, either, and neither was him opening fire on protestors. Call it a special electoral operation, and any doubts about constitutionality were fixed soon after with new elections.
That is how things are done in democracies. That’s how crises are resolved.
note: i have a sense you’re not really reading all of my messages so please just skip forward to the end and answer some questions for me if you don’t have the focus to continue fully engaging
You should learn a little more about your own history. Germany was forced to rewrite a constitution after losing WW2. That constitution had to be subsequently approved by the Allied members, of which the US was by far the most influential. Part of that constitution stated no offensive military. That specific part of the constitution has not changed, although the definition for “defensive military” has become broader in both Germany and Japan as the US demands more of its vassals due to the worsening geopolitical situation.
Countries not under subjugation don’t have these types of terms built into their constitutions by force.
When they leave NATO and have an offensive military then they will have full sovereignty. Modern imperialism does not look like it did in the 19th and 20th centuries. You know, iron glove in a velvet glove. Remember
“Keep America in, Germany down, Russia out”. That hasn’t changed. Germany is the most powerful European country with a very prideful but repressed patriotism (you being a good example)- from the American perspective it needs to be kept on a short leash. It’s why more and more attention is being given to Poland. More and more NATO weaponry and troops has been shifting over to the east.
verbatim quote below
Ok we’re getting somewhere
Yeah so small that that were give a quarter of government cabinet positions in the new unconstitutionally appointed regime. So small their leaders were one of the few photographed with US leaders celebrating Euromaidan
Here’s a piece around that time period https://foreignpolicy.com/2014/03/18/yes-there-are-bad-guys-in-the-ukrainian-government/
Can we please dispel this myth that they were unimportant? Just because the truth is inconvenient does not mean we ignore it or pretend like it is something different
Ok, and what if after all that sacrifice you ultimately lose anyway? What have they gained?
The conversation that ultimately started this conversation - a family man goes off to war to die, ruining his family permanently and the country loses anyway. What is the point? If the US did not support Ukraine, they would not have survived this long. If they would not have survived this long, hundreds of thousands of men would be alive and uninjured. Thousands of buildings would not be rubble. Millions of people would not be refugees.
This war is not for Ukraine. “Win” or lose there is no good outcome for them. It’s a fight between US and Russia. Ukraine is a sacrificial pawn stuck in the middle and they will suffer no matter how this war turns out. Like Chomsky says “we will fight them to the last Ukrainian”
It’s not smoking gun it’s circumstantial. You take it into context with all of the other circumstantial evidence.
We’ve discussed the exact number above. Are you not reading the messages? Are you a bot?
No, it was not constitutional. It should have gone to a constitutional court and they should have gone to election. Neither happened. A government was unconstitutionally appointed. We can debate on whether or not the unprecedented nature of the event warranted this extrajudicial action- but we can’t play word games here. It was definitely unconstitutional, virtually all the constitutional experts agree on that.
I see the opposite. The civil society was weak enough to allow violent protests to topple a democratically elected government.
No, that’s what happens in African and Middle Eastern “democracies”. In stable democracies, they get voted out next election and there’s a peaceful transition of power. And note- less than half of Ukrainian supported Euromaidan at the time. Again, like we discussed above before, the reason you see such high homogeneity in political beliefs today are twofold
a) war unifies people both because of common enemy and because of a giant government tap of propaganda
b) most of the pro-russian ukrainians have been incorporated into Russia by now. majority of Crimeans for example supported unification with Russia before 2014
let’s try and agree on a base set of facts and move forward from those facts. we try and agree on some base set of axioms and then can come to conclusions instead of this all over the place repetition we seem to be having. I’m going to make some statements and you either say “yes, I agree” or “no, I disagree because xyz” where xyz has some reasoning like a historical fact. for example if I say “the universe started 12 billion years ago” you say “no, that is wrong the universe was founded 13 billion years ago”. let’s try and stick exclusively to objective statements for now. I’ll make some
Initially, Germany was not allowed a military. Using your military offensively is against international law so you’re saying that to be sovereign, you need to break international law?
I do not have any kind of German patriotism. As usual for my state I’m Holstein first, European second, German if then third. The former is actual identity, the middle is the greater family, the third is an amalgamation of other peoples many of which have less in common with us than Danes or Dutch. It’s kinda arbitrary.
Might I remind you that the Prussians actually conquered us, and the only reason that we didn’t go for independence after the war is because Prussian refugees also got a vote. Be it Danish or German jingoism has only ever brought Schleswig-Holstein calamity.
In short: You’re well-advised to not base anything on your understanding of European identities because you understand nothing about them.
Please look at the election results of Svoboda since 2014.
“collective agent” does not mean “they were the majority of the people”. They were a small fraction of the people. The vast majority of protestors did not come there as part of organisations.
Entry to Valhalla. Also Russia has no way to win this thing, they lost within days of invading ever since then it’s a matter of them not understanding that.
…is what Russia likes to keep telling itself to justify to themselves why they haven’t won yet. In reality if Western support would cease, Ukraine would fight on, if necessary as partisans. They’ve spent long enough as a colony of Russia to understand that it’s worth the fight.
And, have you laughed at it already?
As said: I’m not saying that the impeachment was according to the constitution, in fact I think I said the exact opposite. What about the elections after that, though? Not even Russian propaganda is talking about the “Legitimate president Yanukovich” any more, I mean it would be rather silly considering his term would be long over.
Who is the civil society if not the people? Despite your assertions the protests encompassed a wide, wide spectrum of people, from all walks of life, all kinds of political directions.
…no. E.g. Christian Wulff was forced to resign over this, based on public pressure. Yanukovich did not have the common decency to resign, he went AWOL instead, so he had to be impeached.
No. Most of the population of the “people’s republics” have either fled or have been killed at the front, holding Mosin-Nagants the Russians gave them while installing barrier troops. In other words: They were put to the meat grinder. Another portion was massacred, Bucha, Izium, etc. Now it’s mostly settlers from Russia.
No. There were polls conducted by Russia showing support. Those two things are not the same.
Ukraine pre-dates the Duchy of Moscow, pre-dates the Russian Tsars. It has a long history of keeping Moscow out, not all of it successful. Post-USSR, Ukraine has made much larger strides economically and when it comes to combatting corruption than Russia did.
No. The EU is the strongest economical power and, militarily speaking, could stalemate the US. It does not have as much power projection capabilities, we don’t want them. We use soft power instead. Something something USB-C, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg.
Mostly South America and a couple of places in Asia because Domino Theory. Btw do you believe that the US still believes in that. That is, do you believe that their reasons for doing things are still the same as they were during the height of the cold war.
You’ll have to be more specific. You said “After WWII” which implies after 1945 which means that you’re talking about the Ukrainian SSR. At that time Stalin was generally busy sending Ukrainian Red Army soldiers into gulags. Or was that before or after. Anyhow kinda off topic but yet another crime of Russia against Ukraine.
It was founded to organise Europe against the threat of Russia, just after and in response to the Berlin Blockade I’m not a fan of it either but the whole thing wouldn’t exist, and definitely wouldn’t have expanded, without Russian imperialism. The alternative was the Pleven Plan which would have involved a joint European army, but France ended up vetoing its own proposal.
So did Russia, so did the EU.
Oh, definitely. All those bribes definitely weren’t cheap for Russia.
I have exactly three questions for you, in return:
We’re trying to make statements of objective fact… Without a base set of facts, this conversation will go nowhere. I’m going to ignore everything else so that we don’t get lost. Although I have read it and I appreciate your effort in this discussion. You are welcome to make statements as well.
Please. Yes or no because xyz. Ukraine could have made great strides, but that doesn’t change the statement. Let me make the statement more precise
1. The modern state of Ukraine is a relatively young country with 3 decades of independence and is a poor and corrupt post-Soviet Eastern European state.
https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2023 - Below average corruption and only marginally better than Russia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita - Poorer than Guatemala, Iraq, and Libya
There are three parts here: a) Ukraine, with its current institutions, has 3 decades of independence and thus is a young country relative to most other countries b) Ukraine is a corrupt country relative to most other countries c) Ukraine is a poor country relative to most other countries.
So again- yes to statement 1 or no because xyz
Well first, EU is not a country. But I’ll play along and pretend like it is. We’ll start with economy-
GDP USA $26.85T
GDP EU $16.7T
EU economy, putting all 27 countries together, is roughly 60% the size of the American economy by nominal GDP.
GDP per capita USA ~$80,000
GDP per capita EU ~$38,000
In a per capita sense, EU citizens are worth about half of what American citizens are worth
But to be honest, these are bad measures of economic power in the modern world. We live in a globalized society where corporations are what determines economic activity and ultimately economic and soft power. So let’s compare
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_companies_by_revenue
Largest 50 companies in the world by revenue
22 are American . 7 are EU.
If we look at the top 10 largest companies by market capitalization- 7 out of 10 are American. Only 1 is from EU.
American companies also dominate specific industries. For example there are no major tech companies from EU. Apple, Google (Alphabet), Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook (Meta) and more are all American companies. There is no EU Silicon Valley. The reason we are able to communicate right now is because of development and infrastructure by American companies.
To simplify and put it roughly: American companies are dramatically more dominant globally than EU companies.
There are other indicators-
The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq account for over 50% of global equity market value. That means the two major US stock exchanges account for over half of global economic output or roughly $40T.
If you combine EU stock exchanges- Euronext, Deutsche Börse, Borsa Italiana, we have roughly $10T.
So American equity markets are 4x the size of the EU.
The first part of the statement - The US is the largest economic power in the world - I think is clearly true. If you have reasoning and evidence otherwise, please share. But this is pretty non-controversial
The next part of the statement - The US is the largest military power in the world. Your response was this
This is patently false. For one, we could look at defense spending.
The US defense budget is $877B. This accounts for roughly 40% of global military spending.
EU defense budget is $235B. So roughly 1/4 of what the US spends.
This means the US has more planes, more guns, more missiles, more drones, more bullets, more bombs, etc. Not only that, but it has higher tech equipment because the US has been spending much more for much longer (including on research). In one year the difference is $877B − $235B = $642B. Over 2 decades that’s $12.8T.
This is why the US has stuff like the Patriot Missile Defense System and the Europeans don’t.
Let’s look at some figures
So not only does the US have better stuff, they have more of it. They also have much more experience using that military, which leads to tactical and doctrinal advantages.
So the statement “The US is the largest military power in the world” I think is clearly a true statement. It’s the US that has dozens of military bases in the EU, not the other way around.
2. The US is the strongest military and economic power in the world and spends more money on power projection than any other country in the world.
yes or no because xyz
Please, yes or no because xyz. It’s either true or not true. We can discuss nuances after we agree to a base set of facts. But to elaborate, here’s a non-exhaustive list of US attempts at regime change (with varying levels of success)
the statement “Mostly South America” is false, as South American countries make a minority of the countries on that list. the statement “a couple of places in Asia because Domino Theory” is false, as it was more than a couple and they mostly had nothing to do with Domino Theory. We can address your question once we have the axioms.
I’ll keep the statement identical
3. The US has attempted, with varying levels of success, to topple dozens of regimes all over the world throughout the 20th century up to the modern day.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/05/11/covert-operation-ukrainian-independence-haunts-cia-00029968
I will revise the statement to be more precise
4. The US has in the past used covert means to spread dissent and support regime change in Ukraine, in addition to other Eastern European countries.
Yes or no because xyz
Ok let me revise my statement
5. NATO was founded as a tool of American hegemony and power projection, with an aim to counter the Soviet bloc
Yes or no because xyz
NED has existed for longer than Ukraine has been an independent state and has been funneling money for the entirety of Ukraine’s existence. EED, on the other hand, was not founded until 2013. NED also operates with roughly 10x the budget of EED.
Your statement about Russia is probably true, although hard to find evidence for. Let me revise the statement
6. The US has openly funneled billions of dollars in Ukraine since Ukrainian independence, far more than any other country except perhaps Russia.
Yes or no because xyz
Let me revise my statement to be more precise
7. There is some non-zero and significant amount of money that the US poured into Ukraine covertly in addition to the funds above.
Yes or no because xyz