Turkey will start coming under pressure from the United States over its stance on the Middle East crisis very soon, according to Jonathan Schanzer, who is senior vice president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, one of the most influential think-tanks in Washington.
NATO will not kick out Turkey. It is the controlling the Bosporus and is the gate from Europe to the Middle East.
It would be a huge blow to NATOs ability to project military power in the region.
Erdogan knows that and used this as leverage a lot over the past decade.
Given that anything went so far, including trading oil with Daesh and allowing supplies and fighters to pass through Turkey, i doubt anything but staunch words to come out now.
Also i am asking myself how much more soft power the US and Europe can afford to loose over Israel.
Question is - how much does it take until NATO says “the liability to keep you in is far greater than the benefit you offer.”
Personally, I’d say Turkey is very close to the point where the remaining NATO members say “better a horrible end than endless horror.” And the day THAT happens, I don’t want to be turkish citizen and witness what might happen to the already dwindling economy…
Yeah, “being a massive asshole” isn’t enough. Even “only sending one guy with a pointy stick to help” isn’t enough to kick someone out, since nations get to define their own level of help
A shame there is not a protocol to throw badly behaving allies out of the treaty.
NATO will not kick out Turkey. It is the controlling the Bosporus and is the gate from Europe to the Middle East.
It would be a huge blow to NATOs ability to project military power in the region.
Erdogan knows that and used this as leverage a lot over the past decade.
Given that anything went so far, including trading oil with Daesh and allowing supplies and fighters to pass through Turkey, i doubt anything but staunch words to come out now.
Also i am asking myself how much more soft power the US and Europe can afford to loose over Israel.
that is what Erdogan is counting on all the time.
Question is - how much does it take until NATO says “the liability to keep you in is far greater than the benefit you offer.”
Personally, I’d say Turkey is very close to the point where the remaining NATO members say “better a horrible end than endless horror.” And the day THAT happens, I don’t want to be turkish citizen and witness what might happen to the already dwindling economy…
Or at least a method of suspension until they start behaving themeselves again
There is, but it defines “behaving badly” in the core terms of the agreement, which is aggression towards a member or refusal to act to help a member.
Yeah, “being a massive asshole” isn’t enough. Even “only sending one guy with a pointy stick to help” isn’t enough to kick someone out, since nations get to define their own level of help