The last time this happened, voters didn’t credit Bill Clinton. That may be a bad omen, or a good one.
If the stock market chose presidents, Joe Biden would be a shoo-in for reelection in 2024. The market rallied this month amid growing optimism about the economy, with the S&P 500 zooming 1.9 percent Tuesday on news that the consumer price index rose only 3.2 percent in October (compared to 3.7 percent in September). Stocks rallied again Wednesday on news that the producer price index fell 0.5 percent. Commentators are no longer debating whether the economy will experience a “soft landing” (i.e., a reduction in inflation without recession). The only question now is when it will arrive. The S&P 500 seems to have decided it’s already here.
But the stock market doesn’t choose presidents. Voters do, and polls continue to show they think the economy is in terrible shape. A Financial Times–Michigan Ross Nationwide Survey conducted November 2–7 is absolutely brutal on this point.
The problem is that Wall Street Wealth is not Voters Wealth. “Economy” has become “Riches Economy” - In a good economy, the rich profit more, in a bad one, the rich profit less (but thy still profit, if they are not terminally stupid). All the rest just pays for it, regardless in what state the economy is.
For normal people, the economy is, as always, in a very bad shape.
This is high-schooler thinking. Yeah rich people benefit more from the stock market and are more able to weather the dips, but the overall health of the economy is still closely coupled to the average person’s quality of life and employment opportunities.
The stock market is not the economy. Just because stocks have had a soft landing doesn’t mean that that’s translated to people’s lives experiences.
A company making higher profit has a higher stock price.
A company that can pay its workers less for what they produce will have higher profits.
Therefore the stock market is a measure of how effectively workers are being exploited.
Not true. It’s also a measure of how effectively customers are being gouged.
Both can be true…
Hence the “also”.
“that’s not true but it’s also true”
deleted by creator
It’s not true that it’s just exploitation of workers. It’s also price gouging.
deleted by creator
The markets are reacting to what they think means the economy is making a soft landing. The fed was battling inflation, which usually means they press on the lever too hard and we have end up in a recession with high unemployment.
But we haven’t entered into a recession, employment is still very high and wages are currently out pacing inflation.
We still have catching up to do due to how much people fell behind during the period of high inflation, but this landing is way better than any other we’ve seen and certainly better for most people who may have otherwise been just unemployed rather than just struggling to stretch their current income.
What did you think a soft landing meant?
For the markets daily volume 90% is traded off market without affecting the price due to pfof and bs exemptions from market makers that allows them to very effectively naked short stock for “liquidity”. Couple that up with nearly every big firm using the Aladin algorithm and you can make the market do what ever you want granted a story is going which supports your narrative. I’ll believe we had a soft landing when equity swap data reporting is not getting continuously delayed hiding true market positions. Also don’t forget we have a plunge protection team who’s job is to short or buy stocks with taxpayer dollars to pretend the market is stable. Also don’t forget this started before covid.
Do you work in finance?
But what does this have to do with the rest of what I said? You seem to be arguing that the market is a reflection of the economy, just some secret market that no one knows about.
I’m explaining that the market you base your health of an economy on is manipulated to all hell. Has abandoned most of the principles that made it a reflection of the economy and is still being paraded as if it’s some useful metric. Aladin and most other market algos are trained on prior patterns and predict their reappearance, have enough firms using that system and its able to predict its own moves. I.e the reason they can predict some semblance of the market is because most of your market works on the same trading signals and data points. Allowing it to react to its own interpretation of the market that was created by its own signals. Allow market makers exemptions to short selling for liquidity purposes and the ability to print to the tape the trades that are favorable to them, and you can swing a market any which way you want.
No I’m pointing out that the metric in which we base our economies health is pretty much a show built on confirmation bias from using systems that predict and reinforce biased data points.
No one here is basing the health of the economy on the market. This has never been true, even pre automated trading. However, sometimes the markets do react to good news in the general economy, as they are not completely decoupled, and this is what I’m talking about.
I’ll try again, do you work in finance?
Wow. Someone actually bought the trickle down theory.
Removed by mod
But according to the article, there’s no evidence that this means anything is wrong with the economy…
You just conflated the stock market and the overall health of the economy without so much as a hint of a logical step.
Next you’re gonna tell us that when the rich benefit the whole system benefits because the wealthy will recirculate their wealth back into the system
Like horses and sparrows.
Or some kind of liquid trickling down.
Hahahahahaha
sure, buddy, keep telling yourself that
Is this English?
Exactly. Your downvotes here only prove the financial illiteracy/intentional misinformation rampant across lemmy.
Not to mention that the average person should be putting their retirement savings mostly into mutual funds, so when the market goes up it should benefit the average person directly as well as indirectly.
And do you have any criticism for the rampant misinformation being spread by major politicial parties, for-profit media empires, exclusive schools and giant corporations the world over, as they promise “this time, neoliberalism is really going to work”, even as they stake their fortunes on it failing yet again?
Do you have anything relevant to the conversation to say, or just typical whataboutism?
Relevant username.
That is completely relevant to the conversation. If you can’t even manage a token “trickle down is bullshit” then we know the “knowledge” you’re about to bless us poor idiots with is just self-serving garbage.
The average person doesn’t have retirement savings dude, that’s the whole problem. 80% of the country lives paycheck to paycheck.
A quick glance at his profile should be all you need to know that facts aren’t going to change his opinions.
Not because he’s one of the usual fascists, reactionaries, or idiots, but because chances are he’s a neoliberal, groomed from birth to defend the rich.
It’s unlikely he’ll actually admit it, because the piss-covered graves of Thatcher and Reagan made it clear it was best to stay mask on. Instead they communicate through dog-whistles, flashing just enough of their bullshit theories like “trickle down economics” and “deregulation is better for everyone” to let other neoliberals know the feeding trough will soon open and filled with other people’s money.
The giveaway is that whenever he decides to be critical of other peoples opinions, they’re almost always opinions that are a threat to someones profits.
People upset about the spiralling cost of living while the executives of the companies milking them for every cent get multi-million dollar bonuses? They just don’t understand economics.
Whistleblowers exposing the horrific animal abuse thats rife within the multi-billion dollar meat industry? They’re just petty criminals.
It’s the game they’ve all been taught to play. You’re allowed to tussle for market share (such as the “left wing” and “right wing” media empires and political parties) but you’re never, ever to tolerate a genuine threat to the systems they’ve built.
The moment a politician suggests making the rich pay their share, all of these “competitors” suddenly unify with a class solidarity we can only dream of.
Which is a lot of words to call out a single person living in his greedy little bubble, but it’s important that people are able to identity neoliberalism in the wild, because its well on its way to killing us all.
Mutual funds generally underperform the SP500 as a whole, as well as most broad-spectrum ETFs, and carry an expense ratio 5x higher than VG/Schwab ETFs just for fun. And that’s not even accounting for the class-A shares that a lot of financial advisors steer their retail clients into.
No, the “average” person should be putting whatever retirement money they can scrape together into index funds via Roth and/or traditional IRA, then regular retirement investments. But most “average” people can’t afford to even sock away 6 months’ worth of expenses in an emergency fund because healthcare costs and anything associated with raising kids has gone up a gazillion percent in the last 40 years while real wages have stayed stagnant.
Oh, also try buying a house while facing all of that AND student loans that Republicans are too pig-headed to let the government forgive even a fraction of.
“Financial illiteracy” isn’t the problem here, reality is.
What the poors really need to do is hire better accountants!
You have savings?
Lmao