What is also obvious to anybody with a minimally functional brain is that Russia would invade if they thought they could. Therefore ramping up defence is a good idea to dissuade Russia from thinking it’s a good idea. Even with that deterrence, those not covered by this (Moldova, Georgia, as mentioned) are still vulnerable.

It is a reasonable point that there needs to be a balance, as throwing the entire economy into the military by pulling societal investment will fan anti-EU pro-Russian sentiment, so a balance needs to be struck. From the tone, I doubt you’re the right person to discuss the nuance though.

Yes, total fantasy. They would never do such a thing.

I wonder what the mental gymnastics will be if/when Russia invades non-NATO countries like Moldova and Georgia.

I don’t like referring to people fighting for their culture, society, family and future as a “crumple zone”.

Absolutely. People need to be organizing IRL. Data on the wire is all well and good, but to really slow the gears of fascism you need to be working hand in hand with your neighbours, colleagues, family, and anybody else on board in your local area.

Even if you’re in a trump-supporting neighbourhood, talk to people. You might be surprised by people disappointed in the massive drop in QoL.

Egg.

Egg.

Egg.

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Turkiye also has a large military industry looking to sell to the EU, a large military, and wants control over the black sea (which involves weakening Russia), and wants to be as friendly to the EU as possible to eventually get that coveted EU membership.

Yeah, an opportunistic authoritarian, but a useful one in this dire emergency.

Oh, they absolutely do. As far as I’m aware though, the people Ukraine got out ASAP to any country that would have them were women whose husbands were conscripted and were the caretakers for multiple children.

As we all know, women are incapable of fighting. When we fire a gun the recoil breaks all our bones!

I know, military service is the final boss of sexism, but that’s still how it is in Ukraine. There’s some murmuring they may be expanding their conscription to women of fighting age without children, but it is still the case that women are exempt from mandatory military service.

“secret” lmfao

You can keep a secret between 3 people if 2 are dead.

Not really. These are refugees. Women, children, and disabled people primarily I’d imagine. What’s actually going to happen is that after arrival in Ukraine, they’ll be moved to Poland/Romania/etc to keep them out of the line of fire again.

The only thing this does is disrupt their lives again for no reason.

Don’t worry, we know. We wouldn’t be re-arming like crazy if we didn’t. The general vibe here in eastern Europe is one of worried, resigned determination. I’ve never seen pro-EU rhetoric this popular before in my life.

If it was intended to be a dump and pump, it’s not going to work. Companies aren’t going to reestablish supply chains just to get rugpulled later. More important than price and quality is consistency. Just the uncertainty alone will have an effect for years.

Egg.

Egg.

Egg.

In this brave new world, we are all Gaullists.

Make all the “France surrendered” jokes you want

It’s so weird to me that France has been a military force that has oscillated between a force to be reckoned with and the most powerful land force in the world since the 17th century, but you lose one war to a blitzkrieg with an overconfident military leadership…

As an eastern European who knows what it’s like to have an angry belligerent neighbour next door, I feel for you. I don’t have much to offer other than hoping you and yours continue to be ok, and hoping that nearby countries in similar situations can organize somewhat to help eachother.

I’d be very interested in more recent stuff. As I mentioned, the last time I seriously looked at this was 3 years ago, in the opening stages of the war. It’s very possible that new methods have been developed, people’s opinions have changed over time, or both. If you could possibly throw me some links to more recent papers, I’d greatly appreciate it!

It’s really hard to find on Google considering this was an academic paper from 3 years ago, but generally the big problem with polling in Russia is that for obvious reasons Russians are scared to give their honest opinions. If asked over the phone what they think of Putin, every politically neutral Russian and even some anti-Putin activists will say they approve.

From memory, the methodology they used was to give 3 propositions unrelated to Putin (less contentious policy decisions) and the respondents were only asked how many of the statements they agreed with, not which ones. Then they did the same thing again with 4 propositions (4th one being if they approve of Putin), then a 3rd time (this time with the 4th one being if they disapprove). With those 3 datasets, you can then essentially subtract the 3 unrelated propositions from the 4th one they actually cared about, all without requiring the respondent to actually state their opinion on the phone.