Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.
Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.
The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.
The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.
Archived at https://web.archive.org/web/20240712121307/https://www.npr.org/2024/07/12/nx-s1-5036518/biden-trump-poll
I suspect that the debate was an “emperor has no clothes on” moment for Democratic politicians. Everyone already knew that Biden is old but no one who thought that was a big problem wanted to be the first one to say so. (Why risk being sidelined for disloyalty to the party in the case where you speak out but then no one else does?) The debate was just the tipping point that made age an issue the politicians were willing to talk about, but voters don’t have the problem with being disloyal that politicians do so they had already taken Biden’s age into account in a way that politicians publicly hadn’t.
With that said, these national polls are fun for people who watch the election like a sporting event but they’re a poor way to actually predict victory. How many electoral college votes each candidate will have is independent from his support in much of the country, where only a catastrophic event could possibly change a state’s electoral outcome. Meanwhile in swing states the small difference in polls like this appears to be magnified in Trump’s favor.
National polls are essentially garbage in close elections. They really only say if there’s going to be a landslide. The fact nationwide polls are close and getting closer is generally bad for an incumbent.
With you until the last line. I guess “generally” saves it. I don’t think you can say these close polls are bad for Biden, because as you pointed out polling is essentially garbage. I think it’s a mix of selection bias and some phenomenon by which some people just lie to pollsters. Even exit polls have been increasingly unreliable.