There’s a very good chance of that, but the consequences of being wrong are too high.
That said, there is an I-know-that-they-know-that-I-know game involved. We might not be able to chance Russians nukes working, but Putin has to be wondering if they work, too. If he launches one and it fizzles, the whole world will cheer NATO on while obliterate Putin’s regime in a conventional war. Therefore, he has all the more reasons to not launch them preemptively and let the question hang in the air.
I don’t know if I would bet the extinction of all life on Earth save for the most resilient bacteria on that assumption.
Suppose that through the Russian government’s kleptocracy, that after they spent billions on mansions and stolen exotic cars, that they put the rest into maintaining their nuclear arsenal.
russia doesn’t have functional nukes
There’s a very good chance of that, but the consequences of being wrong are too high.
That said, there is an I-know-that-they-know-that-I-know game involved. We might not be able to chance Russians nukes working, but Putin has to be wondering if they work, too. If he launches one and it fizzles, the whole world will cheer NATO on while obliterate Putin’s regime in a conventional war. Therefore, he has all the more reasons to not launch them preemptively and let the question hang in the air.
I don’t know if I would bet the extinction of all life on Earth save for the most resilient bacteria on that assumption.
Suppose that through the Russian government’s kleptocracy, that after they spent billions on mansions and stolen exotic cars, that they put the rest into maintaining their nuclear arsenal.