Due to high gerrymandering and messed up voting system it’s expected that a result like this would still give Orbán a small majority in the parliament.

But Orbán won all elections since 2006 (in 2006 he lost parliamentary elections in March but won local elections in September, than won everything in 2010, than he changed the voting rules). Current system overwhelmingly punishes coalitions and small parties, and favors big parties.

Medián, the pollster behind this poll is usually one of the most accurate. Wiki page about recent polls, and the rise of Tisza Party: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election