Biden is well past his prime, had a shitty performance last night, hate his record on Israel, but I’m still voting for him because he’s not Trump and I’d prefer that our representative democracy continued. Moving to a braindead, functionally illiterate dictatorship just seems like an all-around worse move in every respect. Not sure about his chances, but whatever, there’s not really any other alternative at this point.
Not American, and hate Trump and Biden equally. I say vote Trump. He’s the slim shady of US politics - he’s only giving you things you say with your friends inside of your living room, the only difference is he’s got the balls to say it in front of you all and don’t have to sugar coat it at all.
So instead of avoiding your discomfort of acknowledging what the US is, just vote trump and let it be clear to everyone
Or not. It doesn’t matter what you do, Trump is winning anyway. You guys are going to have cheetos man for president whether you, or we, like it or not.
Yea the things my family who likes him says in the living room is mostly ignorant compilations of how they think the government works and dumb white trash racist garbage so no thanks.
My point was entirely that the US taken as a whole is white trash racist garbage, but ok.
So your logic is that supporting garbage is better than supporting the anti-garbage because it makes clear to everyone that you and everybody else are supporting garbage? Don’t you think voting Trump because “he will win” is a self-fulfulling prophecy?
This person lives in London, that pretty much says everything you need to know about whether they should be weighing in on this situation.
Yeah homie, you tell yourself that it’s YOUR SINGLE VOTE that’s going to. Make all the difference haha.
You got a loicense to be online bruv?
Ahh see the fatal flaw there is that you assume Biden is anti-garbage. That’s your mistake, right there. But your tribalism won’t allow you to admit that. So, feel free to respond if you like, but I’m out.
Trump is garbage. Biden is running against Trump. Therefore, Biden is the anti-garbage. Basic reasoning, man.
Jesus, this is third grade level. Best of luck to you dude.
I mean with sweep generalizations like that you’d fit right in with the MAGA crowd, no wonder you like trump lol.
That’s not the whole US, just mostly the south.
he’s only giving you things you say with your friends inside of your living room, the only difference is he’s got the balls to say it in front of you all and don’t have to sugar coat it at all.
Things like what, exactly? We must be hanging out in different living rooms.
If Trump was in my living room, I’d spit in his face. He’s so far removed from how I live my life, it’s hard for me to even acknowledge people like him exist.
Nice try tankie Biden is still less embarassing than trump was
I work in Finance in London, lol, tankie is nice. You will keep saying what you said even after Biden shits his pants live on CNN. Do you fam, I dgaf.
And they’d still be correct, I would prefer a man who shits himself on live television every single day, over Trump. No contest. I’d vote in a potted cactus before I vote Trump. What the fuck is wrong with you.
I would vote for a cactus before either of them. We had a lettuce outlast a PM over here a short while ago. But you are blind if you see any fucking difference between them, dude.
Like, I was telling my 2 year old last night he could have the dinosaur Pj’s or the elephant Pj’s for bed. But it was IMPLICIT that he is going to bed.
Similarly, it is IMPLICIT that you and all other Americans are going to be exploited, and brown people are going to be killed, but you can pick the red guy to do it, or the blue guy.
Similarly, it is IMPLICIT that you and all other Americans are going to be exploited, and brown people are going to be killed, but you can pick the red guy to do it, or the blue guy.
And that is no excuse to explicitly support the far more vocal and exploitative of the two, cheering forth the exploitation and murder because “BoTh sIDeS aRe GoiNg tO DO iT!” Fuck that. One side at least has the decency to appear publicly shameful of it. The other revels in it, where the cruelty is the point. If both sides are the same then I’m going to pick the side with a veneer of civility because to do otherwise is to give up entirely on any hope for a future. If both sides aren’t the same then we all know which color is going to end up on the right side of history, that isn’t even a question. So regardless how IMPLICIT it is that America is fucked up shit creek, it’s also EXPLICIT that the average voter doesn’t get much of a say in it and we can only either vote for ineffective neoliberalism, or vote to actively set our own faces on fire.
“I hate the way everything is. Candidate A will make everything mostly stay the same, shitty garbage that I’m used to. Candidate B will make everything that I hate several times worse, as well as present new and novel problems we’ve never even known about before now, as well as inventing new non-issues to pad his own pockets with culture war profits. There is no candidate C. You know, I’m seriously considering voting for Candidate B.” is a brain damaged take, end of story.
Opinions like yours is what brought you BoJo and Brexit. Forgive me if I don’t want to entertain them across the pond.
A “veneer of civility” is all that’s needed to buy your vote? A ‘veneer of civility’ over a fucking genocide? Listen to yourself, you sound so proud of that shit. .
Fuck that. You KNOW the truth about Biden and about the US political establishment and the only reason you vote for Biden is because you are too much of a coward to look reality in the face. You grab on to this fucking ‘veneer’ like you are stix2your fingers in your ears and squeezing your eyes shut and shouting “Aaah I can’t hear you LLALALLALALALA”, and then you act all sanctimonious like you are better people than Trump supporters. You are not.
And no, people believing a bunch of hokum and lies was what bought on Brexit and BoJo. Not very different from the copium you are smoking.
We fought a war so we didn’t have to hear your shit takes.
Apparently you didn’t win hard enough, pookie.
I’ve never seen someone so blatantly tell on themselves as you have in this comment.
Yah fun things to talk about like “hey, isn’t it interesting how you have less medical rights now.” Jfc
Actually, the other way around. We keep on compartmentalizing, Trump can lie all he wants and nothing happens, but Joe stutters and it’s a national disgrace… How can you compare one without including the only alternative?
The fact that the democrats have selected such a terrible candidate that Trump has a running chance for the third time in a row and that the US as a whole has selected two awful candidates for possibly the most important job in the world, that is a disgrace, and it is shameful.
Trump would have a running chance regardless of who the democrats pick would be, the electoral college and republican party have made sure of that.
Republicans accept a post-truth society where everything is someone’s propaganda, that the federal government is out to get them and that the union would be better served as a union of state-level republics. Democrats still believe in the existence of a ground truth and want a union with centralized control (i.e., they are Federalists). Like the Federalists, the Democrats are backed by wealthy financial states (New York, California) as opposed to more rural/working-class states (Alabama, Ohio) and support heavy industrial subsidies (Biden’s IRA, CHIPS) as well as weak state governments.
This is a fundamental difference that explains a lot, actually. The role of government has always been to convince populations to pursue the policy goals of the elite. The foundations of representative democracy involve choosing which elites’ policy goals to follow. The Republicans want to follow state elites (to borrow a Chinese proverb, the mountains are high and the President is far away). The Democrats want to follow federal elites.
Here’s the real problem. The US gets to choose between a career politician and a career businessman (swindler, by definition). Who represents the working class? Who represents the people who actually built America’s economy?
Nobody represents the people, but that’s not a new problem nor, in anyway, a new thing in this Trump era
My biggest fear is that the USA always gets to chose someone who does not represent them at all but at least had the notion that we need a planet to live in
Trump is a man child and will see the world burn out of petty spite. And us, in the rest of the world, would have to still live with those consequences
So back to the debate and the choice between Biden and Trump… Sure Biden is a terrible option, like chosing to get cancer… But Trump is like chosing to be gang raped, shot and left for dead in an open sewer and here we are pretending the 2 bad options are somehow the same
Can you actually explain the difference between the options and reconcile the fact that Hillary and the DNC purposefully elevated Trump behind the scenes (entire “lesser evil” rationale is a farce)? Thx!
My biggest fear is that the USA always gets to chose someone who does not represent them at all but at least had the notion that we need a planet to live in
That’s the part you’re missing. People are legitimately asking themselves “If these two people are my only choices and won’t improve my quality of life do I want to keep living?”
But again, maybe Biden is the status quo which is not great I admit, but Trump is torture then death… How is that even a “close” call to make?
Again you are not fully empathizing with people’s experience under… whoever for the last 20ish years. Some “young” people who are now in their 30s and 40s never really recovered from the financial crisis. Each day is already torture working a dead end job with shit pay where customers scream at them only to return to a tiny apartment with rent creeping up every single month.
It’s not a matter of empathy… If each day is torture under status quo, how is going under a regime promising to make it worse a better option?
You’re trying to trump despair with reason bud. Doesn’t work like that.
Why is Trump the only alternative? There have to be 1000 better democrats than Biden.
Trump would only win if the Democrat party found someone seemingly more inept than him.
I am impressed that the Democrat party managed to present not one, but two outstandingly incompetent candidates. In a row. That’s some bottom of the barrel advanced scraping techniques right there. They even managed to get a representation of both sexes.
I’m sure Mr. Biden will be terribly distraught, as soon as he is able to understand what’s happening around him at the moment.
The Democrats are still stuck in this post-Clinton seniority mindset where they unofficially pick a candidate before primaries even begin, based on who has been around the longest and who has held the highest position. Remember “it’s her turn”? Yes, yes, I know it didn’t work against Obama, but heading into the debates everyone assumed Hillary would be the candidate until Obama put on the better show. More to the point, I think Obama breaking through scared the establishment Dems into doubling down on primary fuckery. See what happened to Bernie, twice. So now we have a president who knows all the right people but plays politics with the 1990s rulebook and has a terminal case of crusty old man voice.
Still better than Trump.
Obama has absolutely absurd charisma. He’s the Democrat version of Trump - knows exactly what to say to his base and knows how to convince moderates he’s not insane.
Clinton and Biden have the charisma of a limp noodle. Sanders has absurd charisma, but he’s seen as too big of a threat to Democrat lobbyists and big corporations.
Sanders would’ve mopped the floor with Trump because he would’ve actually been able to grab the 18-44 demographic (which last saw peaks in 1992 Clinton/Gore and 2008 Obama/Biden, both to unseat a Republican and, coincidentally, a Bush).
Sanders would have been able to avoid the collapse in turnout from working-class Black people in 2016.
Sanders would’ve stopped the increasing right-wing radicalization of the youth of America, or provided a counterweight for left-wing economic radicalization.
The US federal elections are basically a pony show and the DNC doesn’t know how to play the game without throwing out their playbook.
This is about a succinct of a deconstruction of the DNCs hand in this cycle as I’ve seen. They’re effectively Ned Stark
He literally is an old man. Which is the core issue.
As bad as Biden was, CNN were worse. Fuck that shitty network for allowing Trump to lie pretty much nonstop for 90 minutes unchallenged.
they gave both people plenty of time, biden is supposed to be capable of challenging on his own
I disagree. Trump indulged in a gish gallop of lies and bullshit. Biden spent too much time trying to refute some of it and in doing so wasted time which he could’ve used to make his own points.
There should’ve been moderation in place to stop this, there was none.
which he could’ve used to make his own points.
Well I mean he did let everyone know we finally beat Medicare.
It takes longer to debunk a lie than to say one. It’s easy to spout out a hundred lies in two minutes, but it takes longer than that to debunk them without just saying “No, that’s a lie” to every one, which also sounds dumb if Trump is saying that, too.
And if Biden wasn’t senile he would have been able to do that.
This post truth thing is a real problem because the average person does not bother checking facts. What they notice is some division, controversy etc. not that one person is lying. Also any moron can see that Biden is old.
Someone with simple answers wins these debates. Notice how Biden says the right things all the time but he won’t reach people like this.
Notice how Biden says the right things all the time
Are you talking about during the debate? “We finally beat Medicare!” ain’t that.
And if you think Biden said the right things about the rail strike or protests around the weapon shipments to Israel you’re living in some kind of grand delusion that excludes millions of people you’re depending on to get Biden re-elected.
Not necessarily.
Perhaps 20 years ago Biden WorldCom acquitted himself better.
That said Trumps performance is a well established debate strategy called a gish gallop - just say dozens of lies and your opponent won’t be able to rebut them all. If they try, they won’t have time for their own points.
Hey if you’re trying to tell me Biden is a shit candidate you’ll get no argument from me. I remain furious at anyone who voted for him in the 2020 primaries.
Certainly the “moderator” isn’t expected to moderate the thing! /s
It wouldn’t do Biden any favors to be the third most charismatic person on the debate stage.
alarm bells?
wait they didn’t know he was old before this debate?
Apparently millions of people during the 2020 primaries didn’t math long enough to realize Biden would be 86 years old after two terms.
I’m more worried that he won’t win the election rather than he will win it. I don’t think the debate changes anything about that, people are likely still going to vote who they were going to vote for. He is the not Trump vote, and it’s just as important as ever if not more important to vote not Trump.
Still better than Trump
If Biden dies and his tombstone is running for president, I’d still vote for his tombstone over trump.
A corporate-controlled genocidal fascist who’s incapable of speaking is the ideal leader under liberalism. Saying mean things destroys democracyTM.
This isn’t even a joke… Like, I keep hearing my conservative family members express that they can’t vote for “someone with dementia”. Glossing past Trump’s many, many, many senior moments, it comes down to the fact the president is supported by an entire cabinet.
If Biden gets poo brain, he’s going to rely on his cabinet. If Trump continues down his poo brain path, he will never rely on a cabinet (especially since it’s full of yes-men). He will just let the dimentia drive him, just like he did in his first term.
E.g. Airports in the 1700s, convincing everyone covid isn’t that bad prior to a vaccine, posting “white power” to his Twitter, tear gassing protesters for a Photo OP where he holds a Bible upside-down. I could go on, and on, and on…
But sure, let’s all pretend Biden’s old man brain is a real serious problem. Because sometimes he… ::checks notes:: falls on stairs, and fumbles words.
These clowns voted for fucking George W. Bush, by the way.
here
Biden guarantees you Trump. Figure it out bub.
Lol /iamverysmart
Smarter than a cohort of individuals insisting that we run a 20:1 underdog.
Sure
The fire alarm has been going off for 5 years and they’re just now noticing the fire.
Yeah, while the republicans have basically openly moved to reactionary and fascist politics, thus implicitly accepting the status quo is over, the influential parts of the Democrats seem to have been clinging completely to the idea that the status quo is what is to be preserved - even though material reality will not make that possible.
Right now, we seem to be in a historical moment, where old privileges are breaking away from a continuing crisis in capitalism that basically has been smouldering since the (late) 70s and kept stable through neoliberal policies thus far. Old privileges being lost results in a reactionary shift worldwide at the moment. It will be harrowing, but there is at least always the possibility of the pendulum swinging the other way - right now, in the coming years, organisation, connecting people, openly presenting radical alternatives to prepare for that moment seems to be the most important work to me.
The Dems are reactionaries and that is a terrible best option.
Would you mind expanding on what you mean by material conditions and fascism in relation to old privileges (don’t know what you mean by the latter)?
So, I am heading to bed for the night, because I have been awake all night and day and the day before to catch the debate - but the short answer is: The decline of the middle class and the petite burgeoisie - which I in this case view not in the traditional definition, but also broader, as all the people owning a little bit of capital i.e. savings for old age in some fond or maybe a house of their own. Also the disappearance of job security and stable work relations.
With it, the conservative “lets keep things as they were” mindset of people who had a decent enough life, i.e. mostly boomers that lived through the economic growth phase of the post-war era, but also younger people dreaming of that time or having profited from it through their parents, comes into crisis. But as this mindset argues from its own experience, it dreams of the past (“Things worked back then, right?”), while missing, that the very same “working” system was what had within it, already the inherent nature that eventually led to it decaying around us. So they need to explain the decline as something caused by an outsider, a malevolent force.
At the same time, this decline of the middle class leads them to try and grasp to divisions that might “save” them from proletarisation - becoming properly dependend on paycheck to paycheck and owning nothing but their own labour power to sell on the market. So, racism for example - if you are white, you might just be spared from the above fate. And you can kick down, targeting all those brown people below instead of punching up - the latter is a lot more risky after all. And the people up above can’t be at fault, after all, you (or the people you heard about from the past) had a great life when those were around, right? It just have to be the “right” people, like you and the people of your nationality/race/religion/other ingroup - often depressingly arbitrary.
This is still a very reductive summary, a lot is missing, globalisation, how it relates to the net rate of profit, how consolidation happens, details about the ideology of our current times. But broken down to it’s basics it can be summarised as such. The middle class is disappearing as a consequence of capitalist development, which leads to them becoming panicky and diving headfirst into ideology.
Well, anyway, good night, hope it was possible to understand what I was trying to bring across in my rambling
Thanks! The increasing difference between material conditions of the upper middle class / petit bourgeoisie and the proletariat, and the often ensuing split of the middle class into these two, is definitely a contention point that allows for quick fascist demagogues to capitalize on. I see that the loss of “old privileges” for the former fortunate middle class allows for admiration of some greater past, which plays well into the fascist textbook.
However, I do think the far right’s success within young males, for example, is a different symptom of the same condition. That young people whose futures are diminished by capitalist exploitation tend towards fascism as their solution, while fully educated about its past and its options, is what baffles me the most.
Maybe I am overlooking something and that is why I did not get your point originally nor that which I described above, but to me there seems to be a disconnect of logic that is exceptional, even when taking into consideration that we are talking about supporters of the far right.
Yes, you raise a very important point that I completely glanced over with sleep-deprived tunnel vision brain. Young males are a group, where ideological factors are a lot more prevalent. A constant barrage of presenting the desirable thing to be succesful - everything from sexual gratification to security in life depends on it - is given to, well, actually everyone, but even today still predominately young males. In addition, the ideological explanation presents no proper “out” that has analytical value: If you don’t succeed, you are just some sort of beta cuck or whatever. How about you buy this course by this YouTube influencer, on how to get money and pussy by changing your own inadequacy, which of course in reality throws the vast majority of their fans into dependence and diminishes any resources they had.
This demand to be succesful, dominant, happy and stoic, weighing on the superego as basically an old dream of success that is becoming more and more unattainable but is still presented everywhere, is also in conflict with material reality. Being the breadwinner of a household where you have a wife that delivers reproductive labour and sexual gratification to you, while you earn the money and keep her dependent? Even with chauvinists that are deep into that ideological prison, households being able to earn enough money without both people working (often even more than two jobs) is not what we are seeing in the present and the future. So, this discrepancy has to be explained in a way, that is compatible with their ideology.
As a side note: parts of the liberal, more well-off “left” (a very relative term here) will basically just give them the answer “well, you are a stupid, low-IQ chud loser, so its your own fault” - basically reinforcing the very “sink or swim, be succesful, if you can’t be, it means something about you is wrong” ideology that creates this whole mess to begin with.
But of course, the answer many will then land on is a variant of my previous post: It worked in the past, right? An outside malevolent force must have corrupted this. It’s the feminists. It’s the Jews. It’s the insert enemy here. That is the core of it again - discrepancy between material reality and ideological demands and dreams within society. Concerning young men, the extreme right also has good illusionary ways to provide them with a sense of being powerful when they are in reality not, through violence that doesn’t threaten the upper classes, and relative privilege within their ideological stratified view of reality.
Ironically, that material reality of proletarisation can even fuel “tradwife” romanticism for some women - basically, the dream of being a loved and loving housewife, being submissive to and dependent on their husband and his income, anything, just to escape the dread of having to work under current conditions without any of the security of the past. (Note that actual submissive impulses that people potentially have as a fetish are a whole other thing in that discussion, but it is relevant, that for some submissive people at least, that can of course also add to the allure of that fantasy, just as the idea of being a breadwinner that has a dependent person giving them sexual gratification and admiration is alluring to people with dominant fetishisations)
You are a hexbear lmao. You suck up to dictators around the world. I dont think we can take your comment serious since you always argue in bad faith.
Yeah, obviously they are the laughing stock here… You should pay more mind to content than affiliations. Even though dbzer0 is a cool admin with a cool community, your comment does not portray you as such.
pay more mind to content than affiliations
That’s not really possible when commenters with certain affiliations are known to be manipulative and participate in bad faith.
Eh, to the extent that Hexbear meme-culture is both prevalent and constitutes as participation in bad faith, that would be true. This was not an example of this, which only serves to prove that the reply was actually in bad faith itself.
When Jon Stewart referred to Biden’s expression as resting 25th amendment face. 💀
Nothing that was said or done in this debate has changed my views or voting preferences. This is an election between two dementia patients. Both are previous generation religious bigots. But only one is an authoritarian fascist. I’m a single policy voter this election. I’ve seen and been shot at by the Aryan Nations. I don’t want to deal with that shit nationally.
authoritarian fascist
Please just say fascist, authoritarian has horseshoe theory vibes which we don’t allow on this com.
You don’t really have a choice. Biden basically just joke show to support Trump being elected and don’t get me started on that nightmare. There’s really only two responses to this but it ain’t electing and I ain’t gonna say it here.
I’m off to start my fire for this dark fucking night.
I distinctly remember that before I left Reddit, I had some lovely discourse with someone who was absolutely inconsolable over my opinion that Biden was too old for the job. Got called ageist and everything else they could think of.
Trust me, I hate being right.
I had a grandmother who died at 88 but was still sharp until that day she passed. It’s clear Biden needs to retire, he’s cognitively unable to act as a president, the media and Democratic establishment need to stop gas lightning us.
You know it is pretty bad when a bunch of CNN commentators think he got smoked.
CNN got bought out by right wing media a little while ago iirc
Doesn’t mean they’re wrong.
And he’s still the better choice
How to throw an unlosable election
It was never unlosable. People have forgotten how bad Trump was and blame everything on Biden. It’s been an uphill battle.
Although I still think he should have stepped aside for someone with less baggage.
All Biden had to do was be unmemorable and he was guaranteed a second term. His ambitious foreign policy decisions (to put it lightly) and his lack of ability to pass meaningful change despite holding both chambers of Congress in his first 2 years doomed him.
He didn’t hold both chambers. The two “democrats” who supposedly won in Senate even changed their party affiliation after winning.
Always 50/50 because two party system, FPTP and electoral college.
People didn’t forget. They never cared. Biden didn’t win by 5 million votes (and that’s not actually a significant percentage), he won by 50k votes in a few counties that flipped their states.
1st. He didn’t win by 5 million, he won by 7 million. 2nd what you’re talking about wasn’t result of popularity, but how our election system is messed up, where some votes matter more than others. trump not even once won a popular vote. Even against Hilary he lost by nearly 3 million.
2016 Part 2: Election Boogaloo
Welp, we’re fucked.
No. We’re “un-fucked”.
We cant win with Biden.
We CAN win without him.
Finally the dense mother fuckers who have been denying Biden’s inadequacy have been dragged, kicking and screaming, into reality.
We’ll have a brokered convention (like all conventions before 1970’s), we’ll get “generic corporate democrat”, and they’ll be instantly polling in the low to mid 50’s and we’ll actually have a fucking chance.
Biden has had no chance at winning this election at any point in his candidacy. Ever. Look at the polling. Look at the data. He’s never stood a chance and plenty of people here and elsewhere have been trying to get this through some extremely thick skulls that have basically been insisting that we need to run an un-electable candidate.
Well the goose is cooked. The rat is out of the bag. Here comes the moose or whatever. He’s done. Adios Biden, don’t let the door hit you on the way out. You did fine on some stuff but wow you fucked up on Gaza/Israel.
Minutes after that debate Newsom was on MSNBC. We’re gonna get Newsom, or maybe Inslee; a way smarter choice would be Witmer or Andy Beshear.
And guess what? Litterally ANY GENERIC CANDIDATE PUTS 10 POINTS BACK ON THE BOARD.
Bam. Switch candidates and Democrats are instantaneously back in this race.
Not only switch candidates, but have Biden have the humility to back that person. Do it in the name of Democracy, you know: this election is too important and I realize we need a stronger candidate than I can be. That would sell well, and that’s what’s needed for better or worse: a good narrative
Yeah, it takes a lot of chutzpah to say, “Look, I tried, but I can’t do it. This guy can do it, and I’m giving him my full support, you should too”.
I think just about anyone who has the confidence to run for President is narcissistic enough to think they are the only person who can do the job, so Biden, or Trump, stepping down willingly is not going to happen.
Oh, nothing about our culture would permit someone to do that. I don’t expect him to. It’s just a nice fantasy
This probably doesn’t work, and it’s probably not as good idea as anyone hopes (genuinely or not). It might happen anyway, but no matter what, we’re coasting toward a second Trump presidency, just like all the Russian agitprops here wanted all along.
If Biden is polling down 10 points or worse at the convention, they could drag someone else onto the stage, but my suspicion is that no one else outperforms him on short notice, even after his abysmal performance in the debate.
A few reasons:
- Newsom probably doesn’t want it. If he calculates Trump wins either way (not unreasonable), he’s not going to want that loss on his record since he’s already gunning for 28. He would be the best chance at getting an up-and-comer who already has good name recognition and looks and sounds good.
- Harris. If Harris wants it, she has a lot of leverage to make it hard or outright impossible for the party to push anyone else out in front of her. She’s a poor candidate for a lot of reasons, but she’s also the most attached to Biden. That’s both good and bad for her. If they want to run anyone else, they have to have her playing ball too. Ask yourself, if you were Kamala Harris, would you give up your only conceivable chance at the Oval in favor of another non-Biden candidate? Remember, in any scenario the odds are good Trump wins anyway.
- The truth may be that the party would rather just let Trump win. That sounds unthinkable, but this isn’t a secret cabal of idealists we’re talking about: it’s a bunch of self-interested rich people who want to put themselves in power. Getting them to do anything for the public good is difficult under the best circumstances. They could easily decide–rightly–that Biden is still their best shot at beating Trump. That was the call in 2020, and it paid off. Don’t forget that many of these same names being batted around now were active in the party four years ago. Newsom loses to Trump, and he’s largely seen as the best alternative. If you’re running the party and looking at those odds, you should run Biden if you actually want the best chance at winning. You might decide it’s just a lost cause and start planning for a four year long nightmare.
Newsom probably doesn’t want it. If he calculates Trump wins either way (not unreasonable), he’s not going to want that loss on his record since he’s already gunning for 28. He would be the best chance at getting an up-and-comer who already has good name recognition and looks and sounds good.
Bro Newsom was on MSNBC 15 seconds after the debate ended. Newsom is 100% gunning for the job.
Harris. If Harris wants it, she has a lot of leverage to make it hard or outright impossible for the party to push anyone else out in front of her. She’s a poor candidate for a lot of reasons, but she’s also the most attached to Biden. That’s both good and bad for her. If they want to run anyone else, they have to have her playing ball too. Ask yourself, if you were Kamala Harris, would you give up your only conceivable chance at the Oval in favor of another non-Biden candidate? Remember, in any scenario the odds are good Trump wins anyway.
This is a real issue that I think you are right to bring up. Harris can basically put the brakes on/ gatekeep whomever the nominee is going to be.
If you’re running the party and looking at those odds, you should run Biden if you actually want the best chance at winning.
Yeah you are just wildly off base here. Biden was at between a 5-20% chance of winning the election prior to this debate (not polling, but probability). He’ll be in the 3-10% range after this. Did you watch the post debate coverage? CNN’s only topic of conversation was that we need to replace Biden. This is CNN! They are the party insiders. He’s cooked.
Newsom was on MSNBC singing Joe’s praises, just like he would have done regardless, because Newsom wants to be president, but Newsom also polls worse than Biden. That’s not hypothetical. Those polls already exist, and a drop in Biden’s numbers isn’t automatically a boost for Newsom. If Newsom thinks losing in 24 hurts his viability in 28, he wouldn’t do it. And who could blame him? It’s five months to the election.
The point is: It’s possible that all of the options are bad. Biden was in the mid-forties before the debate and the thirties after. He went from near toss-up to probably losing if the election were yesterday/today. Newsom might out-poll Biden today, but that’s not the contest.
The contest is with Trump. It’s not good enough to poll better than Biden. You have to actually carry all of Biden’s states and then some. If I’m Newsom and deciding whether to try to cobble together a five-month campaign and limp to November to save the DNC from itself and protect Amtrak Joe’s legacy when I’m starting 15 points in the hole or run my own campaign against the likes of a Haley or DeSantis also-ran once Trump is term-barred, dead, or both in four years, I’m not taking a risk at the convention unless someone makes me very, very confident that I could win.
And there’s the rub. Newsom wants to be president, and he’d love to be president in six months, but he’s not going to take over a campaign that’s already lost. If the party thinks Trump wins no matter what–not an unreasonable conclusion–why on earth would they burn their best shot of a rebound in 28?
Biden was in the mid-forties before the debate
Bro Biden was in the mid thirties before the debate.
Uh… okay, bro. You know that Donald Trump is also running in this election, right? Biden could be running single digits, and it still wouldn’t change the calculus: If a Biden alternative can’t beat Trump, they’re not going to put an albatross around the neck of their political career just to lose in November.
You’ve got the entire thing backwards: Biden is the albatross.
ANY other democrat polls better than Biden. Biden is the worst possible democrat to be running. Period. Except maybe Hillary, and even then, she’d be doing better than Biden right now.
You swap out Biden with literally any hollow blue suit, and you are suddenly 10 points up in the polls.
LOL. A lot of flowery language there but not much substance. The Dems can’t switch now. Trump can instantly snatch on to that and attack whoever replaces Biden as an inferior desperate backup. Trump will say you Democrats have no idea what they’re doing and they can’t even stand behind their incumbent. This isn’t only about 2024 but also about the midterms. Who would vote for a party that backstabs their incumbent?
Yeah your just wrong.
You obviously don’t know the rules for the DNC or how primary’s work, or have any kind of meaningful political acumen. You are your archetypes have been spouting this plainly wrong “political wisdom” both here and across cable news for months, years even. And reality has now bucked your claims.
Bidens not the nominee. He lost that last night. And it’s a good thing. He’s losing dramatically to Trump right now.
Such confidence in statements that will be proven wrong in a matter of days. LOL. You’ll forget these comments by then though.
I mean I’m taking bets.
I’ll take 20:1 if you feel so generous as to give me those odds.
I’ll lay down $20: Biden isn’t the nominee; and a second $20: Biden is does not win the Presidential election.
If I’m wrong on the nominee, you get $20. If I’m wrong on them winning the presidency, another $20.
If I’m right on the nominee, you pay me $400. If I’m right on them not winning the Presidency (for any reason), that’s another $400 you owe me.
Bet? Or coward that doesn’t really believe what they believe when they are held accountable?
If you don’t like those odds, feel free to offer odds you prefer and I’ll consider them.
How would we enforce the bet?
Why 20:1 and not 1:1?
Or even 1:20 if you’re so confident?
Believe in yourself. Take the 1:20 bet.
That’ll show me.
20:1 specifically?
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
That’s just the odds of Biden (or Trump for that matter) keeling over for literally any reason whatsoever based on the social security actuarial table. So if I can get 20:1, I should be break even betting against any octogenarian.
There is a little bit better than a 1 in 15 chance, that for any 81 year old, they’ll die that year. So I hedged it to 1:20 as insurance, because I figured I’m really only betting on the first 9 months of the year. If I can get 1:20, that’s break even odds (actually slightly in my favor). Also, figure the presidency, campaigning; that shit aint a walk in the park. Probably more likely still to die in office than a standard octogenarian.
I’ll give you 10:1 if you bet at least 50 bucks. I lose, you make $50; I win, I make $500. Hows that sound?
Edit: As to how to enforce it, we can make a community and pin it there. ITs similar to what we used to do in a bar I frequented where we would bet pints (very similarly) on whatever was happening. There was a cork-board and bets would get pinned to it. And I trust you.
I’ll eat my hat and comment here if Biden doesn’t gets his nomination. I didn’t say Biden is the nominee. I didn’t even use the word “nominee”. Its you who keeps attacking the straw man. But you know what? I’m 100% sure the DNC will nominate Biden. That debate performance was bad but he ain’t losing his presumptive nomination. Don’t confuse reality with what you want to happen.
Show me a picture of the hat.
@[email protected] 55 days
Show me what hat you will eat.
@concrete_baby Ok, I will remind you on Thursday Aug 22, 2024 at 1:11 PM PDT.
Good luck with Project 2025, because that’s what third party voters are voting for.
We need to get rid of FPTP voting before a 2 party system can be derailed.
Are you like, actually touched?
We’re talking about the Democratic nominee right now. Not any third party candidate.
Biden is the Democratic nominee. Sure it’s not official until August 19-22 but unless he resigns, dies, or is otherwise fully incapacitated before then, he is the candidate who will be on the ballots in November. None of those possibilities seem likely.
We haven’t had a convention. We don’t until August.
Biden is not the nominee. You should try and learn how things actually work.
Maybe look at history from time immemorial. Biden is the nominee. As unfortunate as that may be, that’s our reality.
Whats your bet? Lay down some money.
Are you? Because people are still thinking about voting third party. Despite the fact that the system in place will not allow a third party candidate to prevail. And voting third party takes away from the Democratic party vote every time.
You are just clueless.
Sure thing, Bud.
🫵 🤡
Without ranked choice voting a third party vote is throwing away a vote.
Correct. And almost always a vote that would go to a Democrat candidate.
@[email protected] 5 months
The DNC convention is in August, not November.
@Lifecoach5000 Ok, I will remind you on Wednesday Nov 27, 2024 at 9:42 PM PST.
Does this actually work?
deleted by creator
Biden had beaten him before. And many people will vote for a shit stain against trump.
In 2020 he still wasn’t Genocide Joe though.
He’s not winning. Pull your head out of your ass. He’s losing by every metric.
Did I say he was winning? Where? Show me!
Gretchen Whitmer to the rescue? 🤞
