People keep saying this and I personally don’t really believe it, I think there could be a couple riots, but not like a full on civil war. What does everyone think?

  • bloodfart@lemmy.ml
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    1 hour ago

    No and you should not listen to people who think it could.

    A civil war is large scale armed conflict between groups vying for the levers of power. In the case of the American civil war it was over slavery and came to war because there was no mechanism to integrate the south’s elites into the power structures of the north’s or vice versa and the material bases of those two groups power structures were in opposition.

    What two groups would fight an American civil war nowadays? Democrats and republicans? They serve the same masters. We are witnessing propaganda bent to the ends of integrating members of one group into another.

    Separatist militias? Not only would that not be a civil war, we saw how the fbi handled them in the 90s.

    Corporations? Why would they do that? Government already does the unprofitable things they want and does them how they want them.

    Separatist states? It’s against the economic interests of the very people who would make up the elite class of the new nation of Texas to submit their borders to taxes and tariffs.

    Workers? That’s a revolution, not a civil war.

    If someone wants you to fear modern civil war they’re trying to control you.

    If someone makes art about a modern civil war they’re trying to tell you about something else on the sly, like with zombies.

  • UltraGiGaGigantic@lemmy.ml
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    3 hours ago

    To think it can never happen here is American Exceptionalism. We are just another country. Nothing special here.

  • Feathercrown@lemmy.world
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    3 hours ago

    I believe most people will only fight if their life is already disrupted. So, if the riots or political climate ends up significantly disrupting people’s daily lives, to the point where it cannot be ignored… yes. The state governments could also probably force the issue. It’s not the most likely scenario in my mind, but it is certainly possible. “It could happen here”, as they say.

  • OBJECTION!@lemmy.ml
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    12 hours ago

    No. Like you say, riots, and of course the ongoing epidemic of stochastic terrorism, possibly with more violence directed against politicians and the government, but it’s definitely not going to look like tanks shooting at tanks, and it’s also not going to look like people crawling through tunnels a la Vietnam. What American simultaneously cares enough about politics to risk their life over it, while also being willing to go live in a trench without their phone for a month? No, as long as it’s an option to live a normal life where you can return to your couch and watch or read the news while feeling righteously indignant and engage with social media however you like, that’s what people will do. Look at the January 6’ers, for example, who fully expected to return home and be able to post all about the exciting event all over social media.

    Now, that all goes out the window if some lunatic decides to start WWIII with China and institutes a draft (assuming we don’t all just die in nuclear hellfire). You tell people they’ll have to give up their phones and go live in a trench anyway and maybe some decide they’d rather fight the people making them do that. Americans generally love war, but a lot of that comes from being completely and totally separated from any real life consequences from it. And of course, no insurgency would stand any chance of defeating the US government without foreign support.

    • Melatonin@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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      3 hours ago

      So that’s your plan when Trump gums up the election in the courts and through legislative mumbo-jumbo and electoral tampering seizes power even though he lost?

      As he’s getting sworn in by Republicans as our illegal president and begins mobilizing the National Guard to “round up” foreigners, you’ll be going back to your life?

      • OBJECTION!@lemmy.ml
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        2 hours ago

        What my individual plan is is irrelevant, I’m just describing what will happen. Do you forsee a future where Kamala Harris makes a call to arms for people to rise up and fight against the National Guard and the military? If so, you need a reality check.

        And for the record, we already have camps that foreigners are rounded up into.

      • NuclearDolphin@lemmy.ml
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        3 hours ago

        Won’t result in a civil war. American libs are only capable of organizing for imperialism and complaining on the internet. They will piss and moan, but inevitably stop short of doing anything meaningful.

        See: Bush v. Gore

      • orcrist@lemm.ee
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        3 hours ago

        It’s interesting that you think the national guard would support him. I don’t think it’s as simple as that. We can be sure that most lifers in the military have considered what they would do if the unelected commander-in-chief gave an obviously unconstitutional order. It’s not just a hypothetical to them.

  • bamfic@lemmy.world
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    15 hours ago

    The first one never ended, just went into a cold phase. Heated up a bit in the 50s and 60s and has been getting a lot hotter the last 10 years or so

  • Modern_medicine_isnt@lemmy.world
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    16 hours ago

    Sure. Could happen. Imagine trump wins somehow. Then imagine he orders the military to help the Russians or even just orders some people round up like he promises. His disdain for our military is clear. Some generals will follow because he is the president. But others will refuse. And Trump is dumb enough to order his generals to arrest the other generals. Boom, civil war. Or if trump loses… his followers will look for someone else to follow. If someone actually competent shows up, similar path, just 4 years later.

    • orcrist@lemm.ee
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      3 hours ago

      I generally agree, and I also think that the spy agencies would assassinate him within a couple of days. There’s a bunch of men who have been running those groups for decades, and they don’t want to give up their power because some lunatic is making a power grab on the White House.

  • EnderMB@lemmy.world
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    20 hours ago

    Haha no.

    A lot of people don’t realise how shit a war can be, even when you’re hundreds of miles away from it. Your local economy fucking TANKS, jobs disappear, workers disappear on the next plane out, and you’re left with a population that’s struggling on all fronts, trying to make a brave face.

    America is full of crazy disparity, but war doesn’t care. The one benefit is that the billionaire class would get fucking rinsed by the locals for every shiny trinket they have when suddenly food costs a fortune because your last shipment got shot up.

      • Dlayknee@lemmy.world
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        16 hours ago

        Not the original commenter but I’d wager similarly that yes, the vast majority of the American people are far too comfortable to venture into the “inconvenience” of an actual war. Gripe about it from our couches? Yep. Lift a finger to bring about actual change (and no, signing an online petition doesn’t count) in the face of real, actual, severe consequence? …nah.

  • untorquer@lemmy.world
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    17 hours ago

    Could? Ehhh… Not really, at least while the economy is profitable. Liberals will do anything to stay in a union with their conservative colleagues. If we see wall street deteriorate then there’d be a real possibility.

  • Zier@fedia.io
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    2 days ago

    Could it happen? Yes. There is a lot of anger in America. Will it happen in the near (10-15 years) future? No. Why? Watch any and all of the January 6th 2021 videos of the Capitol Riots. That looked like a bunch of alcoholic, mentally ill tailgate partiers tried to take over a nation. It got out of hand and went very, very bad. The only reason they did as much damage as they did, was because actual law enforcement reinforcements were not called in on time. They are just violent idiots who are old, out of shape, delusional about their abilities, and they did not have an actual plan. Civil war is not the immediate threat we face in the USA, it’s the fascism of christianity from within our government that needs to be destroyed. We need a return back to sanity, back to a secular government.

    • shalafi@lemmy.world
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      19 hours ago

      Mostly agreed, but this is naive.

      who are old, out of shape, delusional about their abilities

      I’ll spare you all the anecdotes, but I’ve been around these people and most of them are no joke. They’re neither fat nor lazy nor stupid nor untrained. You only see the fat slobs in their Amazon gear because that’s who we like to make fun of.

    • grue@lemmy.world
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      1 day ago

      The only reason they did as much damage as they did, was because actual law enforcement reinforcements were not called in on time.

      Let’s be clear about this: law enforcement was minimal to begin with, and reinforcements were deliberately refused, because the people in charge of them were trying to help the coup succeed.

      • intensely_human@lemm.ee
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        16 hours ago

        Let’s be realistic. If it had been a coup attempt, they would have brought weapons.

        To suggest that was an attempted coup, when nobody brought any weapons, is ridiculous.

        • Zier@fedia.io
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          14 hours ago

          You do know they had guns right? The FBI tracked at least 2 shipments crossing the river by white supremacist groups.

  • selokichtli@lemmy.ml
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    20 hours ago

    I think the drug addiction crisis that they have is somehow preventing/delaying this to happen. But the elements for a civil war are there: access to weapons, ideological intolerance, economical imbalance, ever-differing state and federal law and policies, corruption in government and the probable rise of a political group that lost the presidency causing the Capitol Attack out of resentment, between others.

    Democracy in the USA feels like holding with pins. I see the country as conservative to far-right with very few space for other political ideologies.

  • elbucho@lemmy.world
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    2 days ago

    I think that the US is primed to have a civil war. Ever since Reagan fucked the fairness doctrine in 1987, we’ve been getting more and more divided. Gonna sound like an old fogey here, but it used to be that everybody tuned into the same news, and watched the same anchors deliver the same updates about the same world events. We had differing opinions on world events, but we all agreed on what was and what was not reality.

    We don’t have that now. It’s like two completely separate universes occupy the same physical space. In one universe, climate change is fueled by anthropogenic forces and is causing more and more catastrophic damage, viruses are real and vaccines are effective tools to combat them, and thousands of traitors tried to overthrow the government because their cult leader lost an election. In the other? Climate change isn’t real, and also the Democrats have secret hurricane machines that they are using to punish Florida for being a red state, COVID isn’t real, and also it’s a super virus concocted in a lab in Wuhan at the request of Hillary Clinton, vaccines don’t work, and also vaccines are secretly a government tool to kill people, and Jan 6th was a peaceful protest of patriots, and also it was a violent insurrection by Antifa.

    We don’t share the same reality with each other. In one reality, Democrats are basically similar to milquetoast conservatives from any other first world nation, and they care much more about maintaining the status quo than they do about making progress. In the other reality? Democrats are evil incarnate, and they’re waging an active campaign to round up all of the patriots and send them to concentration camps, and they’re also pedophiles and Marxists. In that reality, it’s far more preferable to vote for a dead pimp than it is to vote for a standard, run-of-the-mill Democrat.

    And it’s not just the whole two-realities thing. Ever since Obama became president, the brains of a huge chunk of people in this country just broke. Some of the nicest-seeming people you’d ever met instantly turned into vile, hate-spewing racists, and started mass subscribing to every single conspiracy theory feed out there. That was 16 years ago. Their rhetoric has been getting more violent every year since. That’s to say nothing of the huge increase in terrorist incidents since then - according to the CSIS:

    The number of domestic terrorist attacks and plots against government targets motivated by partisan political beliefs in the past five years is nearly triple the number of such incidents in the previous 25 years combined

    So yeah. I think that this country is primed for organized, mass violence. At this point, all that it’s lacking is the organization. Thankfully, Donald Trump is an incredibly stupid man. I don’t think he’d be capable of organizing people to that level. He can stoke their hatred, for sure. He can inspire the craziest among them to firebomb a mosque or shoot up a Democrat’s office… but he ain’t built to lead people. If someone who had even 1/10th of his prowess as a cult leader, but who was actually intelligent and had a tactical mind came along… hoo boy.

    • Dragonstaff@leminal.space
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      1 day ago

      Having two different realities is not good. I’m not sure what is to be done about it though. Some people will always choose to believe the easy lie over the difficult truth.

      Ignoring Fox and the crazies for a moment, how often have mainstream networks given equal time to climate change deniers and actual scientists, pretending there was a debate where there wasn’t one.

      I want to push back a little on “we all agreed on what was and what was not reality.” When there were three TV stations, did any of them highlight police brutality? Overincarceration? The military industrial complex? Anything that would hurt their sponsor’s bottom lines?

      The news networks we have today are all owned by large media conglomerates. They range from pro-corporate to pro-fascist. I’m glad that there are enough independent voices that we can hear from people who don’t profit off of the status quo. It’s unfortunate that right wing media is so prevalent and well funded, but if there is an answer to that, it’s not going back to the days when Walter Cronkite, CBS, and Gulf+Western would tell us “That’s the way it is”.

      • elbucho@lemmy.world
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        1 day ago

        When there were three TV stations, did any of them highlight police brutality? Overincarceration? The military industrial complex?

        This is a very fair point. True, having very limited news options didn’t allow for a lot of deviation in agreement on observable reality, but to your point, it could also easily paper over a lot of very ugly parts of the actual reality. Chomsky writes quite a lot about this in his book “Manufacturing Consent”, which basically is a dive into how media organizations can be used as the propaganda arm of the government. Everything from choosing what you show to choosing how you talk about things goes towards bolstering an underlying narrative that you want to project.

        I’m not sure what a solution would look like, if one is even possible. But solution or no, the narrative divergence in this country has primed us to detest each other, which is the first crucial step towards mass violence.

    • OurToothbrush@lemmy.ml
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      2 days ago

      That is what I try to communicate to folks who are freaking out about Trump. You have to worry about the next guy, and the next guy, and the next guy. You can’t just keep voting Democrat, you actually have to get organized if you want to stop fascism, because Trump isn’t the font that fascism springs from, he is an inept conman who is riding the wave.

      • elbucho@lemmy.world
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        2 days ago

        True, but have you looked at the “intelligentsia” of the Republican party? They’ve got nobody. Just grifters and sycophants. It’s one more small mercy. Obviously, this situation can’t be counted on to continue indefinitely, but once Trump is gone, the only thing ready to take his place is Trump-based nostalgia, and people looking to profit off same.

        • grue@lemmy.world
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          1 day ago

          The “intelligentsia” of the Republican Party are dyed-in-the-wool fascist complete monsters like Roger Stone and Steven Miller. They are cunning, dangerous and should not be underestimated.

        • OurToothbrush@lemmy.ml
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          2 days ago

          I’m more worried about democrats having triangulated into fascism in the medium term tbh. Like competent diet fascism vs incompetent blood and soil fascism

          • elbucho@lemmy.world
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            2 days ago

            I’m less worried about that, not because there aren’t evil people among the Democrats, but because the Democrats are positioning themselves as the anti-fascist party at the moment. Starting up a fascist movement of their own at the moment would be bad business.

            Long term, though? 100% agree. Can’t trust none of these fucks. Hopefully, the Interstate Popular Vote Compact kicks off before that happens, and we can do away with the EC. Won’t completely solve the problem, but it will help.

            • OurToothbrush@lemmy.ml
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              1 day ago

              I’m less worried about that, not because there aren’t evil people among the Democrats, but because the Democrats are positioning themselves as the anti-fascist party at the moment. Starting up a fascist movement of their own at the moment would be bad business.

              Their rhetoric sure is, but if you look at their actual policies they’re continuing and escalating some of the worst things Trump did. Migrant concentration camps, massive police funding increases, worsening security and surveillance laws, the whole nine yards.

              Also, fascism is the reassertion of the dominance of financial capital over the system and the democrats take money from the banks just as much as the Republicans.