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It hurts noone to do a few audits. If they come up clean, fine. If not, keep digging. Both sides should agree with that.
Get this: after over 240 years of accusations of election fraud the first time an audit was conducted was in 2020. When there was no evidence of fraud.
So we know 1 was legit, i guess that means it’s not possible for it to be tampered with.
Some of this data is compelling, but this last bit now has me skeptical:
The 2004 Presidential election and a 2002 Senate election were also decried as fraudulent by experts, including Spoonamore—to no avail.
“I don’t know why John Kerry refused to engage nor why Max Cleland refused to engage. This is the third time I’ve walked into the public square, poured kerosene on myself and set myself on fire saying, ‘Hey, this election was defrauded.’ And all three times the same thing has happened. People just run around going, ‘Oh my God, don’t question elections. Oh my God.’ They keep questioning integrity. Well, I was right in 2002 and I was right in 2004.”
Anyone know if this Spoonamore guy is legit, or is he just some crank that’s been claiming the elections have been rigged for 20 years? Can anyone with expertise on these topics (statistics, cyber security, election process) weigh in on the claims here?
He keeps describing himself as a cyber security expert and data scientist, but hes actually a finance major and the only technical job he lists on his resume is 8 months as CTO at a tech company back in the mid 2000s.
I found his official complaint about 2004, which gives a good idea of the sort of non-evidence he considers significant. Overall he seems about as legit as anything Trump was trying to push in 2020.
https://law.osu.edu/electionlaw/litigation/documents/KLBNA-E4-5-27-09.pdf
if it’s the random dude on Twitter and this is a classic Twitter article then it’s likely a big nothing burger.
some dude on Twitter has been spouting that he’s a big security expert but last I looked at the tweets I was not convinced of anything
lots of words and no evidence
Leaning hard towards “been claiming elections have been rigged for 20 years”. He was asked how he got his numbers on reddit and said “yeah it doesn’t mean much without the actual counts” and handwaved the question away.
Really wish headlines would start being “One guy claims” instead of “Experts claim”. But that wouldn’t get as much engagement.
Like every other time democrats will fail to act. I won’t hold my breath for recounts.
Interesting. Minnesota has ballot backed electronic voting (vote is done on paper, read by machine), and the presidential results were far closer than anyone here is admittedly happy about, but it’s not exactly possible to do ballot stuffing like this.
I can see one swing state having an anomaly like this possible - that’s an anomaly.
The 7 swing states that Trump won? That’s a pattern.
However, I also would want to know what the bullet ballots were for all 50 states, not just the ones neighboring the swing states states to say it’s a pattern.
But the other part where it’s specific counties thats weird. To me, that sounds more like organized efforts to get people to at least vote for president. A cyber attacker certainly wouldn’t use county voting participation data to find registered voters unlikely to vote and cast a bullet ballot for them… Right?
In NV:
Presidential votes were:
-
Trump - 751,205
-
Harris - 705,197
-
Other - 28,438
-
Total - 1,484,840
Senate votes were:
-
Rosen - 701,105
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Brown - 677,046
-
Other - 86,577
-
Total - 1,464,728
Question 6 - abortion protection votes were
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Yes - 905,170
-
No - 501,232
-
Total - 1,406,402
Total turnout: 1,487,887 out of 2,042,607
Source https://silverstateelection.nv.gov/
In 2020
Presidential votes
-
Biden - 703,486
-
Trump - 669,880
-
Other - 32,000
-
Total - 1,405,376
Question 2 - same sex marriage ban repeal
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Yes - 821,050
-
No - 494,186
-
Total - 1,315,236
Total turnout: 1,407,761 out of 1,822,166
Source https://www.nvsos.gov/silverstate2020gen/
In 2016
Presidential votes
-
Clinton - 539,260
-
Trump - 512,058
-
Other - 74,067
-
Total - 1,125,385
Senate votes
-
Cortez Mastso - 521,994
-
Heck - 495,079
-
Other - 91,221
-
Total - 1,108,294
Question 2 - marijuana legalization
-
Yes - 602,463
-
No - 503,644
-
Total - 1,106,107
Total turnout: 1,125,429 out of 1,467,263
Source https://www.nvsos.gov/silverstate2016gen/
Edit: updates with more years results
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If the data is there to warrant suspicion then they absolutely should do it. Who cares what it costs or how long it’ll take? We deserve a fair election.
Guys for fucks sake can you SORT YOUR SHIT OUT oh my fucking god fuck my life / rip / fucking fuck
“Here’s how Bernie can still win”
Democrats prepared out the ass for Election fraud and capitol storms. If this was real we would have heard it.
What is a bullet ballot/vote?
A ballot with only a single candidate/position filled out. No down ticket voting present with it.
A ballot with only a presidential vote and nothing else
This is a compelling argument and statistically significant enough to convince me these states need a paper recount. I had no idea bullet ballots were so astronomically outside of the norm, and occuring directly in counties that happen to needed to swing? Come on. The projected data is beyond troubling, not just for this election, but for the general integrity of the ballot.
Just so no one defaults to “the election was legit and there’s no evidence to show that it wasnt”, Bullet votes for Trump are definitely suspiciously high (5-7 percent despite historically not even breaking 1 percent) in swing states. And only swing states. There wasn’t a trend of significantly higher bullet votes across the country, its a purely swing state thing and it’s in every one of them. And it’s usually just enough for him to win and be just over the automatic recounts threshold.
If you dont want to read the article and data, just know that it’s really easy to create malware that only activates after something is plugged in and then deletes itself after. So the theory is that memory cards when plugged in created hundreds of thousands of bullet votes for Trump to swing the election.
It isn’t impossible. All that would be needed to prove this didn’t happen are hand recounts. But people like Musk have started to say that “recounts are dangerous and never accurate” and that’s suspicious as fuck. Unfortunately the Harris campaign has been very reluctant to ask for these recounts because they dont want to be accused of doing the same thing Trump did back in 2020.
Hopefully the recounts happen and we either find out that yes he stole the election, or that yes he won it. But all that is needed to show that for sure are recounts.
Note for anyone that doesn’t know: Bullet votes in this instance are votes where the person only voted for the top of the ticket and left everything else blank.
There’s no evidence, but there’s hints that strongly imply we should double check the count, which would provide the evidence.
That’s fair.
Harris campaign jas been hitting me up constantly for donations to “make every vote count” so wtf are we not doing any recounts anywhere?
Because they need the money to pay off their $20mil in debt.
dont want to be accused of doing the same thing Trump did back in 2020.
Which is part of why Trump does it, it muddies the water so when he does the same thing, it makes it harder to accuse him of it.
It’s so stupid and painfully transparent to anyone with a functioning fucking brain.
Asking for a recount because of statistical anomalies is a far more legitimate reason than all of the reasons Trump came up with (e.g. Trump won the state last time, the same name appeared twice in a voter log, addresses don’t match). Most of these claims weren’t even used in court though, they just said this shit in public.
Most people are crying and whining about what’s coming without even stopping to think does his term even need to begin. A ton of legal battles were fought post-2020, dirty but legal, and our only action so far has been, “I stopped using X!”
Nothing will even be looked at by the party. They rolled over and declared defeat before the night even ended.
There is no legally binding condition to conceding. Recounts can still be asked for if paid for. I think it should be done just for the fuck of it. I didn’t disagree with Trump asking for them aside from the context “theft”. The paper ballots are the source of truth, and if something seems fishy, go ahead and check them.
Yup, I supported trump’s silly recount nonsense when my local MAGAs were whining. Then I got to laugh when THEIR freaks came up with nothing over and over.
Do I think the election was stolen? Yes. Do I think it will ever matter or for anything to change even if everyone knew? No.
whoaaaaaa. whoa. whoa.
this is a good thing to get angry about and call up your state officials, especially if you’re in one of those swing States.
“Is this just the Left’s version of right-wing conspiracy theories that have played an outsize role in destabilising our institutions? Perhaps.”
no, there is no evidence for qanon conspiracy theories, while there is plenty of evidence that Trump’s lawyers stole voting software and the voting numbers are historically and statistically non-credible, specifically in the most important states in the election and specifically just over the margin that would spark manual recounts.
this is definitely actionable material.
Where are they getting the numbers of these bullet votes from? I’m not seeing the source in the article or the dude’s substack
You can see them yourself when you aggregate state data and count votes for president vs downballot candidates. The norm is like <1% with a margin of error based on historical data. This is the case for literally every other state except the swing states. The swing states are seeing anywhere from 5-12% bullet ballots. It’s so far outside of the norm that it’s bordering on the improbable.
I will have to wait for more sources to report on this then for I will be honest with you and say I do not have the time to aggregate the data myself due to other data related work, nor would I know off-the-bat where to look.
I’ll be watching this story closely
I’m not about to make any claims of legitimacy to this, but having read the article, I do think it’s worth others reading. There is a lot that is suspicious, and it’s not a particularly difficult thing to verify (although it is slow, expensive, and you know the GOP is going to be making every possible effort to prevent a recount, whether they’re guilty or not).
Yeah was just telling a buddy. I never once had any doubt reading allll of trumps and his teams claims.
This gave me doubt. Whether realistic doubt or not. It actually gave me doubt.
Yeah, its seems we should be doing verification checks regardless. Kamala ran a billion dollar campaign. And they can’t scrape up the cash to pay for hand recounts in a few precincts? You don’t have to recount a whole state. Just randomly select precincts and see if the vote totals between the hand counts and the computer tabulators are wildly different. With a recount on a close election, it’s expensive, as you literally need to recount every single ballot. Here all you’re trying to do is to make sure the vote tabulators aren’t rigged in some way. So you just need to compare the paper ballots to the tabulator counts.
I’ve been following this for a few days now, and the question I keep coming back to is:
Where are they getting these numbers on how many “bullet ballots” there were?
I really hope that it’s more than just inferring based on the number of votes for Trump vs the votes for other ® candidates down ballot. Because if that’s the case, I would expect states like AZ and NC to be outliers (I don’t know enough to speculate about other states).
AZ had Kari “loser” Lake running for the Senate, and she’s not well liked here (to put it nicely). She already ran for governor a few years back and got beat, and a lot of people weren’t happy that she was trying again for a different statewide office.
NC had Mark “black NAZI!” Robinson running for governor, and we all heard how much of a train wreck that turned out to be.
So I just wonder if this isn’t a matter of there being a lot more votes for Trump, and instead just a lot less for the other candidates.
You could do vote totals for president vs vote totals for the next highest state-wide race (or break it down to more locally) without looking at the party those votes went to. It wouldn’t prove that the huge number of bullet votes were specifically in favor of Trump, but at least would suggest some wrong-doing, even if the result of a recount lowers Harris votes.
Still, there’s surely lots of other races where one candidate is clearly awful, yet bullet ballot rates are still <1%.
Still, there’s surely lots of other races where one candidate is clearly awful, yet bullet ballot rates are still <1%.
True. I guess it’s still just like to know where these numbers are coming from.
To be clear, I think what’s been laid out in these two letters is sufficient for there to be hand recounts done in this instance. I also think they should just be SOP in every precinct to make it that much harder for somebody to screw with things.
Where are they getting these numbers on how many “bullet ballots” there were?
Just to answer this question, given the data, I’ve done more complex analyses during my lunch break at work.
If their database is anywhere close to modern, you can run an analysis on anything you want in seconds. Give any expert access to the data, and they could tell you how many votes were cast for Trump in East Bumfuck, Idaho between 10 and 11 AM in voting booth #4 in about 30 seconds.
Which is one of the reasons I remain skeptical. If Harris doesn’t have an expert who can crunch those numbers in real time as the data becomes available, that’s a failure on her part.
Right. I’ve dabbled in DBs and work with (relatively small) datasets in Sheets/Excel all the time, and agree that it would be trivial.
But I wouldn’t think that that data is available to the general public at this time, so where is this coming from? I could see if the letters were written as “hey, the public numbers look a little weird, someone with access should take a deeper look,” but instead they were written as authoritative statements.
And that’s the point I’m trying to make. These analyses are trivially easy to do.
I’m also sure that both the Trump and Harris campaign have access to far more data than the general public. This kind of analysis should be done as a matter of routine by each precinct anyway (again, even if only to make sure that the tabulator isn’t throwing in a million votes for Mickey Mouse), and if Harris didn’t have half a dozen people on her team crunching these numbers over and over before she conceded, that’s a huge failure on her part.
And it’s the reason I don’t believe in this theory. Being able to check on this is rudimentary work; had there been any anomalies, we’d have known it on November 6, not November 21. The fact that not one district across the country (remember, all 50 states went redder) or one person from the Harris campaign spoke up and said “Hey…might wanna take a look at this.” speaks volumes.
