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When growth is so inherent to your system that the opposite is “negative growth”.
We built a system based on continuous growth and consumption. People freeze like deer in the headlights when it gets brought up that it isn’t sustainable and get offended that maybe we should try to make some changes to it.
Well, if you used the correct mathematical term, population decay, then you’re gonna have a lot of rubes rioting about some conspiracy on how a population can’t decompose or some shit.
Scientist had to change global warming to climate change when they realized some people can’t look past the buzz words and learn something.
then you’re gonna have a lot of rubes rioting about some conspiracy on how a population can’t decompose or some shit.
Wtf? We should be stupid because other people are? A lot of rubes also sounds very hyperbolic.
I feel sorry for anyone who reads your comment and takes it to heart.
I genuinely think you’re misreading that comment. I read this as an acknowledgement/warning of past human idiocy recurring, which, when we extrapolate from known data, is fucking likely.
Ironically, your misinterpretation has led to your own hyperbolic reaction, so maybe this is about self-pity.
That’s fine.
You’re wrong.
I bet the kids love you at parties 😘
I wish “a lot of rubes” were hyperbolic. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/14/americans-believe-climate-change-study
Fox & Co are doing a splendid job of growing rubes.
I’m not entirely sure what you’re trying to say.
You need to improve your reading comprehension, then.
Haha, good one
Hey man, either you’re playing stupid or you are stupid.
Which is it?
What is the bad news?
The economic system built on infinite growth will also collapse and leave most of those people in inescapable cut throat poverty and starvation
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We’ll be lucky if it goes that smooth. Usually the whole thing at least partially collapses, followed by is a few hundred years of dark age to sort things out and then rebuilding starts with a new system in place for another go.
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What if Cochran turns out to be a drunk disillusioned Musk in this timeline?
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He was a selfish drunk, but he had the spirit where it counts. Musk has no spirit, hes just a man child.
The worse the world becomes, the more I wonder if Posadas was right.
The problem with cannibalism is that once you develop a taste for it, it becomes difficult to stop
Last time they did it in africa… well I’m sure the following starvation was just a coincidence.
Someone wants people to believe we need to grow… The environmental impact says otherwise.
They won’t care. The investors can’t think past next quarter.
So you’re saying we should sharpen the national razor?
Current difficulties caring for elderly will continue to get worse, as the population of working age people continues to shrink faster than the population of elderly
We could do like Logan’s run
True. Exemplify the YoLo lifestyle and go out in a big celebration when you’re at the top of your game
More submarines for the rich!
Only bad for nations that are shrinking too fast, like some nordic nations and South Korea. But most other nations will benefit from the less population growth rate.
Cool
That’s good. Infinitely growing populations aren’t sustainable, and I don’t know that there are any viable arguments for continued population growth.
The problem is the word “significant”
We can all agree the population can’t continue to grow. We can also agree it probably needs to shrink, especially by the time this starts making a difference.
However, if it shrinks too rapidly, there’s a lot of potential disruption of society and economy. If it continues to shrink, it could be a serious problem for all of humanity.
We should make changes now to encourage more people to have kids. The goal should be a slow, controlled decrease, to level off, without major disruption
Personally, I like 6B as a good place to plateau. We’re probably already beyond the planet’s carrying capacity so need to be less than today. However a lot of the advancements in society (technology, space, medicine, science, innovation) really require a fairly large population. Establishing a number ought to be someone’s thesis, but in the meantime: 6B
Maybe society needs to be disrupted. There is lots of room for improvements
Maybe, but I think of disruption sort of like mutation. We all like to think it creates superhuman but most same actually negative , and reality is we get more improvements with continuous increments
Mutation is random and if as people we cant do better than random change we deserve the hardships it brings.
The math says that the planet could sustainablely support 10B humans and the supporting ecosystems. Just not with the current system in place.
sonally, I like 6B as a good place to plateau. We’re probably already beyond the planet’s carrying capacity so nee
With the current food growing technologies, we can handle 10 billion comfortable well. We will obviously not reach that number anytime soon. But we are on track to shrinking rapidly in many nations. That will destroy these nations.
I think that there are a lot of 8 billion people who would disagree with comfortably well. That number needs to be closer to two, to be sustainable with earth’s resources. At least that’s my understanding, not disappointed if wrong.
The problem is not the resources, it’s the distribution. No political will to end global poverty, no profit in feeding the hungry.
Oh absolutely, people gonna keep being people. The truth seems to be that we don’t really know, but it’s likely somewhere between 4 and 16 from the little bit of reading up I just did.
Yeah, I tend to most notice reports of overfishing. Food from land sources is almost entirely farmed but we still get a lot of seafood from wild sources plus don’t have aquaculture anywhere near as advanced as agriculture: there’s not much we can do. Loss of a marine food source is a big deal, and we keep doing that with more species. One solution is fewer people
A lot of the higher estimates assume we can overcome limitations like this with better management of resources, but that is against human nature and our current incentives. It’s not going to happen, even if lives depend on it
Let’s not forget water… And eventually, oxygen… But keep buying/selling those trinkets people, for the economy.
And well, how much of these resource estimates leave enough for other life too, or does all other life just exist to feed us?..
I doubt that. Current conventional food production is highly fossil fuel dependant (everything from fertilizer to processing to transport). Earth’s ariable land and top soil is decreasing quickly. Ecosystems are collapsing from the effects of agriculture and climate change. Most “advances” require more inputs and energy, which means more fossil fuel use, further accelerating resource degredation and climate change. I forget the statistic, but humans already control a significant proportion of Earth’s biomass. This chart from https://www.greenpeace.org/international/story/17788/how-much-of-earths-biomass-is-affected-by-humans/ might be what I was thinking of:
About 30-40% of food is wasted in the US, in India its 22%, in China 27%. These are the largest nations in the world. The reality is that we can build more efficient infrastructures that can drastically cut down on this. But we don’t need to yet, because it’s not cost efficient. That’s how much ‘free’ resources we have produced based on current technologies.
There is the repugnant conclusion: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mere_addition_paradox but I don’t really buy it.
I can’t initially agree that A+ is better than A. I think A is better. So his argument falls apart right there.
Median happiness is the important factor not average happiness.
The basic paradox is that you’re better off with more miserable people who barely want to live than with less people who enjoy their lives a tiny bit more than that.
I ultimately think it’s a load of bunk, but that’s the supposed paradox.
That’s like saying perpetual war isn’t sustainable and you have to make peace. Formally true, but in practice:
Your country (a developed one, with virtually universal literacy, functional school education, water and electricity everywhere, universities, internet, etc) stops growing in population.
Some another country (with basically nothing except for dirt and dirt-poor people who mostly can’t read, sometimes burn witches and kill infidels) doesn’t fscking stop.
That’s a good thing right?
It will be very tough economically as fewer people will need to work to support those in retirement. Economic problems, in turn tend to lead to social unrest and a turn to extremist political positions and solutions.
But it should at least take some pressure off the planet. Maybe AI can pick up the slack. Time will tell.
This is exactly why Japan is investing so much in robotics. They have a rapidly aging population without enough young people to replace them or care for them when they’re too old to work.
They will probably eventually have to relax their immigration policies, but that will be a last resort for them.
In indeed is an economical and political issue. It seems like there is enough money and resources to support the elder people. It is just accumulated in the hands of corporations that are only valued by their growth. I hope that the negative growth can rub off onto companies too, so that they are valued for their stable income instead of needing to grow
All the incentive structures in capitalism reward growth. It’s true in all levels of all companies. It will be excruciatingly hard to change.
Yes. We have realized as a species that we are beyond max capacity and it just affects us negatively. It’s one of the most amazing things that we realized just as nature does.
I agree with you, that ecologically, this will probably be a good thing. Economically, we will need a different system as i doubt that any increase in consumption per capita could outweigh the increase in people we currently see. And our economic system is dependent on growth.
kind of like "“Children of Men” but people just choosing not to have children. I see people my age in their 40’s having only 1 or 2 children and people in their 30’s just not deciding to have children at all.
Luckily, it’s still within our power to choose not to reproduce.
Perfect example of Newspeak gaslighting.
“negative growth” instead of diminuition, population-recession, reduced population, or ANY proper rendition of the concept.
Nobody in mainstream media speaks plainly anymore, because … money requires befuddlement instead of clear-understanding?
Or is there some/any other explanation??
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Apparently the proper term, 'natural decrease ', is much less sensational. It’s all about clicks and views now, not delivering good content.
Is it natural if it’s bought on by low wages and high prices making it impossible for most to afford a family?
Those in poverty usually have more children. Woman having more rights and joining the workforce is probably a major cause; which is probably why there’s all this money backing taking away women’s rights recently. Another major cause is likely isolation and lack of community in modern life (“it takes a village…”).
The researcher points out that births “will increasingly be concentrated in the areas of the world that are most vulnerable to climate change, resource scarcity, political instability, poverty and infant mortality.”
Well, this can only end well …
Having 0-2 happy children vs having 8-12 children running around dirty, hungry and naked.
Yup. People naturally choose the former if they can, but a country with fewer people is weaker and may become poorer.
So it’s a government’s job to make it affordable to have children.
This part of reality is explained best via logic which may seem a bit fascist, but it does exist. It’s not a good thing to be eaten.
Good, let’s make that happen sooner.
Don’t worry, this doesn’t account for the people that will die, directly or indirectly, from climate change.
Well that’s not where I was going with that, but you aren’t wrong…
Lol. By then it will be done for us, unwillingly.
If you read the article, that’s basically what it says.
Good, I can’t wait!
Governments, along with the corporations who will struggle to find employees when this happens have all brought this upon themselves. Treating people like dogshit all the time doesn’t pay off in the long run.
By then, I’ll have done my part!
Not had children, you mean?
That and I’ll be dead by then, so there’s that.
If capitalism continues unabated. This is far from certain.
Summary: The article from EL PAÍS discusses a study predicting a significant decline in the global population by 2100. Here’s a summary:
Global Population Decline: The study, published in The Lancet by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, forecasts that by 2050, 155 out of 204 countries will have fertility rates too low to maintain their populations. By 2100, this will rise to 97% of countries.
Fertility Rate Drop: The fertility rate is plummeting worldwide. For instance, Spain’s fertility rate decreased from 2.47 children per woman in 1950 to 1.26 in 2021, with projections of 1.23 in 2050 and 1.11 in 2100. This trend is mirrored globally, with France, Germany, and the European average also experiencing declines.
Economic and Social Impact: The study urges governments to prepare for the economic, health, environmental, and geopolitical challenges posed by an aging and shrinking population.
Regional Differences: While rich countries already face very low fertility rates, low-income regions start from higher rates. Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, will see a significant increase in its share of global births, from 18% in 2021 to 35% in 2100.
Migration as a Temporary Solution: The authors suggest that international migration could temporarily address demographic imbalances, but as fertility decline is a universal phenomenon, it’s not a long-term solution.
The article highlights the need for strategic planning to address the impending demographic shifts and their associated challenges¹.
Yet another issue that I’d too long-term for anyone to understand or focus on. If we address it now, changes can be small and simple. However history shows we’ll wait until it’s a crisis, then panic.
